Realistically, IF the bear market were to reassert itself (as everyone seems to be chomping at the bit for), 200-day ma is at 9,109 for the Dow and 977.22 for the S&P. Will it get there? Not likely (at least in 2010). The prophet.
This is an incorrect approach to trading. Look for short and long setups, cut your losses and ride those winners. Then picking direction becomes meaningless. No Heat
how is it a bull or bear market when it is basically in a major recovery of a major crash in 2008? It is like asking a blind chicken where the worms are....
The majority is now bullish, when everyone is leaning on one side of the trade it usually is a tiny hint of what's to come. I'm even starting to think it's time to close out my shorts and patiently wait for another 3000 Dow points to jump in on the short side. We are dealing with totally irrational markets at the moment, no one is talking of any correction, not even a small 10% pullback. This is the same exact feeling I was feeling in 2007 when the market made it's highs and completely fell apart months later. The other funny thing is that not one person has a lower price target on the s$p than 1100. Predictions are going high as 1300+. Aside from all of these sky high predictions is that maybe the s&p goes into a wild 5 year bull market, goes to 1800-2000 then completely collapses again under 1000. The only reason behind this rally is because of government and fed stimulus and backing, I have no clue why 98% of you don't realize this. I have witnessed this type of excitement before and I can tell you it doesn't end pretty.
Well excuse me but what remaining short positions could those possibly be? Weren't you screaming "SELL THIS RALLY" and "DOUBLING DOWN ON SOME MORE FAZ RIGHT HERE, THIS IS A BUBBLE!!!!" on every 25 handle up move since 750 in the SPX, before we moved up 400 points? Unless you are trading fantasy money your account was blown out many moons ago.
Mom and Pop are still scared shitless about this rally and haven't committed. Once we get them on board and in then this market gets crushed.
Fuck picking direction and use the market environment to trade the market in the direction of least resistant and you should find some love. I gave up calling direction and having an opinion as soon as we turned on our ATS servers and let them do the daily grind while the expert traders develop ideas and run them across many markets all with proper risk reward Money Management algos and the days become fun again while you think clearly and not fight your emotional roller coaster.
I did say that, believe me, im not afraid to admit what I said, im not hear to spit lies to others. This market is so backwards at the moment I think im going to close out all positions next week. Let the market rise another 50% and run in on the short side, that's if the asset bubble doesn't pop before I get back in, shanghai RE is looking a bit shaky if you know what I mean.
Trust me, I am not happy to hear about losses, but I believe we were talking exactly this topic numerous times all through the summer: about closing out losing trades before they get too big! You can over-analyze the economy all you want, it won't help you if you blow out your account before the market agrees with your thesis.