i agree,but like i said a break to the upside from here could be huge...the risks now i think are pretty even each way..hope i can follow the money this week and make a few bucks
In a few years this current bear market will be viewed as little more than a shakeout like the one in 2002. S&P 500 and Dow will make new highs within 14 months.
Roubini continues to forecast a possible 10 - 20% decrease in stocks, but he himself is 100% vested in equities. Hmmm .... Roubin's Latest Interviews]
I doubt it but stranger things have happened. If this is indeed a 60-70's fractal there will be a sizable index recovery. I'd go so far as to say a 25-30% chance of occurring. OTOH: A new low portends that the 1937-38 and 1974 fractals are out the window. I'll state this opinion: A penetration of 7000 in the DJIA signals all out once in a lifetime crisis. I'm 60/40 on it......
I may be mistaken, but I don't recall there ever being a large downturn in the stock market during a period of massive government spending and monetary expansion.
You have a ton of baby boomers about to turn 60. The NYSE insiders will not, under any circumstances, give these people, who will soon be eligible to cash in their 401ks, an opportunity to pull all that money out at market highs. I do believe there will be a bull rally in 2009, but, it won't take us anywhere near the former all-time high. More like a rally from 6800 to 9800.
Why do you continue to post in the TRADING FORUM? You obviously are NOT a trader and have no clue as to how to make money as one. Fading last Friday's late-day rally without any stops was clear proof of that. Short for 60 handles? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=147089&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 Yeah, right. Time for the IGNORE button.
You got me, Keep buying into a rally and feel like a fool when it drops 5% in a single day, this rally is nothing but ANOTHER BEAR MARKET RALLY, I will get bullish like I said under DOW 6500. Not worth the time to get long, these rallies are not to buy into but rather to sell into, anybody buying into the long side will feel it when the markets sink a quick 5%+ in a single day. Bear market will be here for many years....remember that.
Japan is in a multi decade bear market. Does that mean you could have just shorted any 5% rally with your triple ultra short ETFs without stops and collect free money? You'd been blown out of the game multiple times even though the Nikkei declined 80% You still need to know how to trade and manage your risk.