Bill fleckenstein just shut down his all short fund. doug kass has been bullish and wrong for 4 months. even in todays barrons barry rhiholtz who has been bearish 4 years is now bullish. I THINK WE HAVE MUCH WORK ON THE DOWNSIDE IN 2009. before this is over all will loath the day they ever bought a stock. thats when you buy and hold for 5-10 years
Market rallied close to 600pts from lows on the worst employment news in about 35yrs...Thats sort of bullish- ya think?Fleck covered his shorts over the last few months and is neutral now.Bulls and bears make money,hogs get slaughtered.Why not take fat profits?Fleck is neutral now not bullish.
You know how it is. The rally on bad news is bullish until everyone is too long and it rolls over on profit taking with not enough sidelined cash to supply a bid. Many of the bears turned bull are merely perma contrarians.....
for fleck to even utter i'm looking at going long is like the earth is on fire. this mans been the biggest and worst bear in the history of the world staying bearish during the whole tech bubble and staying bearish from 2003-2007. in his letter he said he's worn out being a bear as it was nerve wracking. SO YES TO MOST PEOPLE HE'S NEUTRAL BUT FOR ANYONE WHO'S FOLLOWED FLECK ITS A MEGA BULLISH STATEMENT. every one talked of how no matter how bad the employment # was we'd rally so it became self fufilling. just don't see much upside as so many people broke and will be selling into this rally to live day to day.
The gov't has done, and will do whatever is necessary to ramp the financial sector into yr end to avoid some yr end demolition. So lets party like its 1999! cus they say 2 thousand zero zero nine party over with outta time!
I read his statement. Sure doesn't sound like a guy going out on top. Does anybody have performance results for his fund? They say bear markets don't end until the last bear is taken out on a stretcher. This seems like the clearest signal yet that we're headed for a 5-handle on the Dow.
Face it. the market and this entire system is broken and the economy is rapidly deteriorating. Im all for contrarian thinking, but I think were headed to a world much less dependent on asset prices and nothing is going to stop it. Alot of bulls keep pointing to the fed and government as a reason to be bullish, but there is zero evidence that its working and its a stupid reason to be long stocks.
I agree. And not all bears are now bullish. Van Tharp, who has been quite bearish, is still quite bearish, suggesting that a bottom will not be reached until the majority of P/E ratios are single digits. The market has rallied well the last couple weeks but is quickly approaching overbought territory. At least in the short term I would expect a downturn next week. Of course, anything can happen.