Every Bear has his day....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dac8555, Dec 1, 2006.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S

    haha....I wish i was watching cnbc right now. Did he really say that...amazing. During the last 3 days Tuesday Wed and Thurs he mocked the 156 point selloff numerous times after seeing the DOW make its way higher again. I hope monday we dont get another 80+ point rally or else I will feel foolish for not taking advantage of this selloff.
     
    #11     Dec 1, 2006
  2. Sir,

    Its a very bullish day in the oil/energy sector. Its time to immediately sell all stocks and go full bore into USO, XLE, and all energy/oil plays.

    OPEC president sees more oil supply cuts
    Fri Dec 1, 2006 9:16 AM ET



    By Tom Ashby

    ABUJA (Reuters) - OPEC will probably trim oil supply again when it meets on December 14 although existing curbs are starting to remove some of the world's surplus, the producer group's president said on Friday.

    Nigeria's Edmund Daukoru told Reuters the volume of the reduction will depend on circumstances at the time, but oil's rally this week and a decrease in fuel stockpiles will influence the group's decision.

    "There is likely to be further trimming. The actual amount would depend on circumstances," said Daukoru.

    "What we are seeing now will definitely influence our decision on how much to cut."

    The price of U.S. crude has risen by nearly $6 a barrel to just above $62 since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in October to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November 1.

    "(The price rise) is not too much of a surprise, because the cuts announced took time to manifest and for the compliance to be noticed by the market," said Daukoru.

    "I am happy to see prices have firmed somewhat. I am beginning to be happy, but not fully happy."

    A Reuters survey showed 10 OPEC members bound by output curbs honored two thirds of their agreed cut during November. Supply was still nearly 600,000 bpd above a target of 26.3 million bpd.

    "With the drawdown in stocks, the cuts are beginning to work," said the OPEC president.

    U.S. crude fell to a 17-month low of $54.86 on November 17, a level which Daukoru said would not allow producers to invest in bringing on new oil.

    "Plans to install new capacity would have been in jeopardy if prices had stayed at the level they were two weeks ago."
     
    #12     Dec 1, 2006
  3. Yep, he called this selloff bullshit. Said bears are pressing and gettign away with it b/c nobody is at work on a snowy friday. Said get long right now. Fuckign guy is really unbelievable.
     
    #13     Dec 1, 2006
  4. Although I agree that some are perpetual bulls, I do not think that to short stocks is mandatory to make money. Actually I happen to short ETFs at times to hedge my long only systems in individual stocks. You can be long Oil, gold stocks or even Merck today and make money. Shorting individual stocks seems to be more of an ego thing than really making money, on a consistent basis, ala "yes I nailed it". I am sure some interesting psychological analysis could be made on this phenomenon of shorting.
     
    #14     Dec 1, 2006
  5. There are many reasons why the selloff we have seen this week isn't a big deal and is a buying opp.

    First, if you look at the 3 months chart for the nasdaq you will see that many times during the rally it has corrected to previous support levels, but rebounded soon after. This happened back in Nov5. And a few others. (chart)

    [​IMG]


    I also see people justifying why the current rally may end. There is speculation over poor numbers, economy slowing, oil, 'chart breakdown' program selling, and so on.

    however, as my summer journal
    shown i was right in that there was no COMPELLING reason for the markets to continue selling off in July. And thats why it has rebounded to hew high as I said it would. Bernake would stop raising rates, (and he did) so the only direction was up.

    An example of a compelling reason for a longer term reversal (1-5 years) would be a terrorist attack on US soil (like 911), severe breakdown in international relations & turmoil (70's), extreme overvaluation combined with parabolic chart (late 90's & 20's).

    Even the 1987 crash rebounded soon after (only 5 years) because there was no good reason for the selloff to happen. Valuations were high, but not like in the late 90's.

    Mondays triple digit selloff was the result of profit taking stemming from mediocre blackfriday sales and poor Wallmart earnings. No compelling reason for the selloff. Just usual profit taking as has been seen beforein the past 6 months.
     
    #15     Dec 1, 2006
  6. S2007S

    S2007S


    thats too funny, said nobody is at work on a snowy friday...so thats why the market is down, because the people in chicago are snowed in.
     
    #16     Dec 1, 2006
  7. Yes, extreme bullishness...

    Yes, Distribution... Even Today the negative Vol Diff (UpVol - DwnVol) for the SPX is monster negative...

    No to Capitulation to Islamic Extremists... More accurately <b>Capitulation to extreme inefficiency of the present presidential administration... </b> As far as i know western civilization has not capitulated to the 3 terrorists rattling their sabers in their underground caves halfway around the world...

    cj...


    HAVE STOP <img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif"> WILL TRADE
     
    #17     Dec 1, 2006
  8. dac8555

    dac8555

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. good one.

    you should research the 87 crash...it was october 19 th by the way..i remember the exact day.

    were you even born before then son?

    do you have a clue why that happened?????
     
    #18     Dec 1, 2006
  9. There is no difinitive explanation of the 87' crash. Ask any financial expert.
     
    #19     Dec 1, 2006
  10. dac8555

    dac8555

    as luck would have it...i have 1 long....OIL.

    :D
     
    #20     Dec 1, 2006