Every Bear has his day....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dac8555, Dec 1, 2006.

  1. dac8555


    Wow...i can finally sleep tonight. i ahve been looking for this for a while now. finally came...the bear stars are lined up...and we are getting bearish triggers.

    Comments on todays action?

    I went heavily short (fully leveraged) in my personal account last night. (i can gamble with my own money)

    and went 50% short (institutional fund that i manage) this morning...the other half is in cash, and if jobs reports are bad...will go 100% short next week for the next 3-5 months.

    1. I thought the bond market has been quite telling (insititutions loading up...takes a lot to move bonds)
    2. weak dollar (if you call it good or bad) has people spooked
    3. the obvious overbought conditions
    4. inability to make higher highs
    5. Doji yesterday on the daily
    6. decent odds of a bad manufacturing reoprt today...
    7. and more bearinsh gesturing towards data

    These thing made it a pretty safe looking short trade today.

    i will finally have a relaxing weekend...

    anyone else?
  2. empee


    well, congrats! The short squeeze is clearly over, now the question is how are the pullbacks. You've got a good position. If we consolidate without breaking way low after a few weeks I think it bodes well for the market, if we pullback, pop, then dump then maybe its a false breakout.

    I think you actually learn alot more about a trend in its pullback period than during its rally. Of course, I expect this to take several weeks to resolve.

    Most importantly, we need to see indices hold their breakout points (usually you get pullbacks to the breakout point and see them hold). I think the action in popular momentum stocks like GOOG will be telling as well.

    Nice short,, you seem to have caught at least an intermediate top.
  3. if recent past experience is any indicator you should probably take profits. they have a nasty habit of fooling the bears as of late. maybe this time its different.
  4. S2007S


    yea this is what the bears needed. Like I said before this is the 2nd time this week the dow has seen a triple digit intraday loss. There is still an hour and half left of trading so anything is possible. I dont think though there will be too much buying before the close ahead of the weekend. The dow could have a chance of closing it around 12175 but the bears will hopefully keep it down.
  5. I too loaded up today. The high volume the past couple of days made it appear that some distribution was finally in place.

    I've detected more and more bullishness on ET and other message boards.

    I've never seen a bonds vs. stocks argument over the economy err on the side of stocks. Bonds are Bill Gross. Stock world is Cramer and Waxie......

    I'm also cognizant that this market bottomed at the onset of the Iraq war. Today the news is filled with "peace" or rather filled with reports on how the U.S. will be leaving Iraq. Peace is a sell. Capitulation to Islamic extremists is a triple sell.....
  6. There will be a lot of covering next week...
  7. empee


    actually, i think the dow has another thrust up left in it, the question is can we clear the highs or does it fail.

    Since this rally began, DOW has led so it needs to breakout on the thrust (probably next week or the week after) or at least short-term we're sideways to down. (for several weeks). IMHO.


    The perpetual bull speaks!

    Have you ever shorted a stock in your life?
  9. Can you explain why you think so? All I ever hear from you is cheerleading. And I read your journal from last summer when you held those awful positions against you and got lucky that the market bailed you out. The market will not always treat you this way. It seems you have no concept of risk management. You sound like a "going down with the ship" kind of guy.

  10. cramer sez buy on tv just now.is cramer ever wrong?jk
    #10     Dec 1, 2006