exactly. as of may, the fund is near even on the <b>year</b>. last 3 years the fund was at or near the top performing CTA. surfer
all that needs to be said is this: people with phd's in stats understand risk management. just because he has steep drawdowns doesn't mean he doesn't know how to trade. i know vic personally, and i assure you he understands the risks he takes. the reason his results are as volatile as they are is because he *pursues* those risks, and his investors know it. let's see: random posters on a trading forum, or a guy with a stats phd, rock star credentials, and 25 years of market-crushing returns. gee, who to listen to? b
How many times has Vic been crushed in 25years? Does anyone really know for sure? We know the Obvious BlowUP so highly publicized. PHD blah blah ... he grabs his nuts and shoots for the stars, not much different than a riverboat gambler. I suggest go to a thread moved to Chit Chat about a case for and against him. His great attributes are equalized by his lacking attributes in my opinion. I think the jury is still out especially after his "best run ever proclamation". THe guy has a great ego and cant seem to ADMIT when wrong IMHO... I think his actions speak loder than his words do. Well, if we enter a higher volatile cycle his returns are sure to roller coaster more than in the previous low vix past 3 year environment. Give me a long term track record adjusted for risk based calculated returns with very nil chance of a BLOWUP, than High gambler returns with a much higher Risk of another Blowup any damn day. Common sense....His second chance investors must love the Sizzle as much as VIC does....
What has PhD got to do with it. Also the claim of appetite for risk is ballyhoo . Every speculator is a risk taker. The simple thing is day in and day out Vic is out there criticizing others, if others have drawdowns he is the first one to talk about it and ridicule them. He is the only self proclaimed greatest speculator in the history of speculation.
funny is that to achieve those returns u only need to sell atm puts on every dip of the indexes, that's what he's done so far; do it uself and save the fees, u also wont be on the grace of his ego-centristic behavior that may cause u to go belly up together with his matador.
victor's moto is: "if it can be tested, it must be tested". the traders whom he questions generally utilize untested or when tested underperforming,ambiguous methods such as "trend following". yes, every speculator is a risk taker, but not every trader is a speculator. VN has a drive to be number one, this is a good thing, yet seldom understood by those who lack this level of ambition. as member "basis" states, the facts speak for themselves. i will not comment on your PhD statement, it speaks for itself surfer
i guessed you missed the returns of the great trend followers over the last 3 years--JWH for one. ok, i'll ask you: <i>how many units in one direction increase the odds above 50/50 that the next unit(s) will be in the same direction?</i> untill this question can be answered--entering the market as a "trend follower" per the generally understood definition of the term makes the same sense as "random entry". surfer
same can be said for your bottom fishin' and top fadin' based on your clearly negatively biased odds. ever heard about increasin' volumes followed by higher lows higher highs, price above trendline after a retracement or a downtrend? many set ups are as clear as mountain spring water and the odds of gettin crashed by a freight train are greately reduced....what have u got there on your countertrend system? u initiate your pos just cuz it feels right? or maybe cuz the mkt is under/overvalued? that's what made u take your decisions so far innit, R0R. just because u couldnt make a dime usin' the most profitable and sensible approach to the mkt out there doesnt mean it is all bs.
It is now very convenient for Vic cultist like you to claim that Vic only attacks trend followers. Do you read the site , when Taleb fund closed down, who had the most glee. If you read his writing all other hedge funds are just wasting their time. Start from the first page of his site and read. Every few days he will criticize all other styles of trading or traders or hedge fund managers. Only he and his cult followers use "scientific method". Only he and his cult followers understand statistics why because "Vic is a Ph.D. in statistics". The reasoning is circular. To claim that only Vic wants to be the best fund managers and others are just wasting their time speculating is another one of classic ballyhoo. All that we are pointing out is what The greatest speculator of all time has said again and again on his site based on his scientific research. "Hubris is deadly Market: The ancient Greeks believed that hubris -- outrageous arrogance -- causes a terrible blindness that eventually leads to the hubristic destruction." Victor Niederhoffer (Ph. D) The market just proved that adage again.