Event Driven Option Plays

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sekiyo, Feb 16, 2025.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Yes I'd also like to see a few plays out :D
    15 are already reporting btw now and tomorrow

    Still bought 1 CRL 175$ Call @ 0.6.
    I don't expect much from it.
    60$ dollars at risk.

    upload_2025-2-18_16-52-0.png
     
    #41     Feb 18, 2025
  2. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    What is your market cap screen, do you have one?
     
    #42     Feb 18, 2025
  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Not sure what you mean.

    I am looking for stocks trading more than 100 millions dollars daily volume.
    There's about a thousand stocks at the end of the day.

    I find it better than market cap alone.
     
    #43     Feb 18, 2025
    deltaf0rce likes this.
  4. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    I had a WAY 47.5$ call that I paid 1.5 and it's now worth 0.3
    Bought it because 0.12 12M Rel Strength is top percentile.
    I think I am going to hold it until expiry (friday)
    The volatility crush is tough.
    Was 2.5 on Friday close.

    upload_2025-2-18_17-3-49.png

    Also got filled on FUBO FEB 28 5$ call @ 0.1
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2025
    #44     Feb 18, 2025
  5. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    I’m watching FOUR. May move but there is no option liquidity. Watching the nearest 140 calls , don’t have series in front
     
    #45     Feb 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Can you explain why FOUR ?
    I've added it to the spreadsheet.

    The pros
    - High beta,
    - High EPS rating,
    - High IV relative to HV,
    - 3/4 earnings were positive,
    - Bullish P/C OI

    The cons
    - IV about equal to median earnings moves

    Industry wise (more or less)
    GDDY went down
    CFLT, CYBR, PGY went up

    upload_2025-2-18_18-9-29.png

    Looks good to me but IV too high compared to median moves for my taste :p
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2025
    #46     Feb 18, 2025
  7. #47     Feb 18, 2025
    ironchef and Sekiyo like this.
  8. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    Just that it hit the criteria you pointed out, it's growthy, it had a high PE so anything's possible, action on the chart looked good, vol was dropping and the 140's looked priced ok from a vol perspective, but that's all out the window now, the 140's 4DTE are trading 2x HV so i'm not touching it... I will say that the lack of liquidity going into earnings on the 1 sigma's seems to have resolved itself a bit the day of earnings. something worth noting...maybe the play here is front run Earnings -1 day ahead using the 1sigma if an option is super short dated and sell into the rumor so to speak...these calls are up 60% today
     
    #48     Feb 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  9. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    #49     Feb 18, 2025
    cesfx and Drawdown Addict like this.
  10. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    So FOUR got smoked after the bell
     
    #50     Feb 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.