I haven’t had a second and wasn’t going to say anything until I had the time to write it up, but now that it’s kind of become a topic, can you list those successful trades, including if you kept the notes the information you used to analyze them, and their ultimate payoffs ; and can you also repost whatever that image was that you were using to guess the final Payoff price - I am going to try to back into a formula for consistency and see if I can’t find a way to scrub the available public data to automate this.
Perhaps, but I am not smart enough to find them. Whatever edge I found in flies weren't enough to overcome the mile wide bid/ask, slippages and multiple commissions. At best I was breakeven. I tried, for years reading and trying to understand dest and the giants of option traders on ET, finally resigned, accepting that for an amateur retail without financial training, it just won't happen. Decided to instead refined what I know, do best and have been a full time hunter for a decade. Maybe you can help? Thanks in advance sir.
Go to this page https://scholar.google.com/ You will find there lots of articles and papers. Since you mentioned that abusive wanker, he is a big fan of volatility arbitrage strategies. Search for that and you will see how it is done.
Here I doubled on RKLB & LUNR Here I doubled on PLTR Here I made 50% on PTR The logic for PLTR and PTR were earnings play. The stocks had strong relative strength against SPY. I bought the 1StDev call option based on historical volatility. RKLB & LUNR been lucky. Trump talked about going on the moon on inauguration. But these stocks also had strong relative strength compared to the SPY. By relative strength I mean stock_mean/stock_stdev - index_mean/index_stdev. Anyway. Got lucky. I've not been trading options for long. So I am still looking for a systematic process. I can't really backtest options, Therefore I'll need some time to document. I am more of a WSB retard that got lucky than a genius. But I believe there is money to be made around catalysts, Especially if IV isn't too high compared to HV or earnings move. I think I should look for candidates for a beat&raise or miss&lower, Then check if the IV isn't too high. Then place a 5% bet with 10x potential. Candidates for a beat&raise might be company that did beat&raise already once.
Our approaches have more similarity than I realized. Essentially we both trade binary events. In your case earning and in mine, unusual events. It is counter intuitive, you need to buy enough to catch the low probability wins but not too much to dilute the expectancy, a delicate balance.
What do you mean by unusual events ? As a WSB retard I have to find stocks that are going to beat trader's expectation of volatility and be on the right side of that volatility. It won't happen often unless I have private information or find factors that provide solid clues about the outcome.
I think you just have to be willing to lose it all on a high risk / high reward play and post your 6 digits loss
I don’t think you’re retarded. I agree it’s definitely the first draft of something but you’ve got my attention and I’m going to dig in on this with you. There’s definitely something here