Even the Pope sides with Futurecurrents

Discussion in 'Politics' started by nitro, Jun 16, 2015.

  1. jem

    jem

    This is my favorite peer reviewed paper.
    this tells you that co2 lags ocean and land temps.

    I have liked to the database for the paper for you many times in the past. here is a summary from the most read climate website in the world.


    Important paper strongly suggests man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming


    [​IMG]

    Fig. 1. Monthly global atmospheric CO2 (NOOA; green), monthly global sea surface temperature (HadSST2; blue stippled) and monthly global surface air temperature (HadCRUT3; red), since January 1980. Last month shown is December 2011.

    Reposted from the Hockey Schtick, as I’m out of time and on the road.- Anthony


    An important new paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds that changes in CO2 follow rather than lead global air surface temperature and that “CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2” The paper finds the “overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere,” in other words, the opposite of claims by global warming alarmists that CO2 in the atmosphere drives land and ocean temperatures. Instead, just as in the ice cores, CO2 levels are found to be a lagging effect ocean warming, not significantly related to man-made emissions, and not the driver of warming. Prior research has showninfrared radiation from greenhouse gases is incapable of warming the oceans, only shortwave radiation from the Sun is capable of penetrating and heating the oceans and thereby driving global surface temperatures.

    The highlights of the paper are:

    ► The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.

    ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.

    ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.

    ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.

    ► Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.

    CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.

    The paper:

    The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

    • a Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
    • b Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, N-9171 Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway
    • c Telenor Norway, Finance, N-1331 Fornebu, Norway
    • d Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway
    Abstract
    Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/...made-co2-is-not-the-driver-of-global-warming/
     
    #181     Jun 27, 2015
  2. nitro

    nitro

     
    #182     Jun 27, 2015
  3. So Jem, stop trying to change the subject, you still have not found ONE publishing climatologist that denies man made global warming. Come on. It should be easy to spot him. He would be one in thousand.

    Don't you think that you sound silly arguing that AGW is false when not a single expert does?
     
    #183     Jun 27, 2015
  4. IF the liberals would quit blowing so much hot air the average temp would go down 2 degrees around the world. I'm positive they are the cause of global warming.
     
    #184     Jun 27, 2015
  5. But I don't deny that man made global warming is real. That's not the subject of debate. The subject of debate is whether government should intervene in the free markets in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. And for that, the questions are the following:

    (1) How much of global warming is man made?
    (2) What effect does global warming have on the ecology?
    (3) What effect will various economic proposals have on the CO2 and on global warming?
    (4) What effect will various economic proposals have on the economy?

    You only want climate scientists for question (1). The other three need other specialists.
     
    #185     Jun 28, 2015

  6. As far as number one above....this graphic is interesting and informative

    What's really warming the world.... http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
     
    #186     Jun 28, 2015
  7. jem

    jem

    wow... is that film propanda? the authors of the Caillon paper seem honest, the narrator is a propagandist.

    lets review.. most of the video confirms that co2 trials warming and cooling. then it goes to the Caillon paper. I bring your attention to 9 minutes 22 seconds.

    The Callion paper at 9:22 ish... confirms CO2 causing warming is speculation when it properly uses the word "MAY". Please look at your video Nitro. The scientists use the way may... saying co2 "may" amplify orbital forcings. it does not say does.

    That is the state of science... We don't know that CO2 causes warming on earth but it "may". (note its even less likely man made co2 warms the earth) .

    In Short... its CO2 in the Gaps.


    But note, the study I presented from Humlum, a few pages ago, even destroys the CO2 in the Gaps speculation to a large degree.


    The Humlum study above shows that the data records indicates CO2 matches but trails ocean warming on the way up by 1 year... and then also trails it by one year on the way down....

    The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.



     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2015
    #187     Jun 28, 2015
  8. This forum is supposed to be about politics and religion. You keep wanting to talk about science. Okay.

    The primary modern scientific opposition to the concept that the majority of global warming is caused by CO2 is probably the argument that global warming is primarily caused by sun activity. The graph you included shows total sun output and shows that it's supposed to be flat. But the subject is widely debated. If you go to wikipedia and look up "sun variation" you will find the following graph:

    [​IMG]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

    The above shows that the region labeled "modern maximum" in solar activity, as measured by the amount of C14 produced (inverse scale) follows nicely the modern increase in temperatures. But for some reason, your bloomberg link didn't include this graph!

    Here are some articles for interested readers (not you, LOL) to read. I'll start with one for you to reject because it's not peer reviewed. This will save you the bother of reading any of the others, LOL:

    Climate Change: The Sun's Role
    Gerald E. Marsh (2007)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    These data strongly imply that a relation between cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover may explain how relatively small changes in solar activity can produce much larger changes in the earth's climate. While the correlation is robust, there is still no generally accepted mechanism, although a number have been proposed. This is not surprising since the microphysical processes in clouds are quite complex and this is an ongoing area of research.
    http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.3621


    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1407/1407.1805.pdf

    An evidence for solar activity influence on the meteorological processes in the south polar region of Mars during the great opposition in AD 1924.
    Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Insitute of Astronomy (2009)
    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0912/0912.2112.pdf

    Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007
    Advances in Space Research, 2014
    O.P.M. Aslam, Badruddin
    Comparison of the relationships between the Indian temperature anomalies and solar activity (SSN) provides evidence faouring a mechanism that depends not only on the level of sunspot activity but also on solar polarity.
    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1407/1407.1805.pdf

    A Doubling of the Sun's Coronal Magnetic Field during the Last 100 Years
    M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, and M.N. Wild
    NATURE Vol. 399, 3 June 1999. Pages 437-439

    [​IMG]

    http://www.ukssdc.ac.uk/wdcc1/papers/nature.html


    Long Term Variability of the Sun and Climate Change
    Cho, Il-Hyun, Chang, Heon-Young
    Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences, Vol 25, Issue 4, (2008) pp 395-404
    ... We determine solar induced components from the time series of temperature anomalies and obtain 39% solar contribution on the recent global warming. ...
    http://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=OJOOBS_2008_v25n4_395



    You can find more articles by googling solar+variation+climate. For articles about the sun's huge changes in UV output and its effect on climate, try solar+spectrum+climate.
     
    #188     Jun 28, 2015
    gwb-trading likes this.
  9. nitro

    nitro

    #189     Jun 28, 2015
  10. fhl

    fhl

    [​IMG]
     
    #190     Jun 28, 2015
    gwb-trading likes this.