Hi Guys, I am looking at these two pairs closely on the 4H hour charts for today. There are many high volatility economic events due to come out that are going to effect European, US and the Canadian economies. Would like to take advantage of them and get into these movements. EURUSD Possible entry area at 1.2100 Possible target area at 1.2900 Fundamentals to keep an eye out for this pair for US economy are Continued Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor costs. While for the European economy ECB Deposit Rate Decision will make a big impact. We are hoping for the Euro to strengthen and/or for the US economy to weaken. USDCAD Possible entry area at 1.34500 Possible target area at 1.3700 For this pair the fundamentals to keep an eye out are the same US fundamentals as for the EURUSD trade and again we would like some weakness to come in for the US economy. While for the Candian economy we would like to see the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index coupled with International Merchandise trade to have a strong impact on the economy. Short Video on PreTrade Analysis.
Yeah the trades not intra day.. sometimes takes a few days to setup.. and sometimes run the trades for few days..
While reflecting on an entry to one of this forum’s trade journals, it occurred to me that given the current state of development of the system I use, its would not be all that difficult to create a graphic at the end of each 24-hour market cycle to help guide my decision-making process the following day. So, just for the fun of it, I decided to go ahead and do this for EURUSD. I suppose it’s akin to the pivot points many traders use to determine levels at which market sentiment could reverse, but I don’t like the way pivot points are calculated and therefore developed my own method of accomplishing something similar. I set minor support/resistance levels, but they are too dynamic (fluctuating) to bother plotting here on this graphic. I also set major and “monster” support/resistance levels, and in this case, I found that I have major resistance falling smack-dab in the middle of monster resistance, so I’m not really expecting EURUSD to climb (maintain itself) above 1.1358 at the start of next week. Rather, I would expect the pair to primarily trade between 1.1321 to 1.1349. If the asset does happen to venture outside these parameters, if anything, I would expect it to pull back to around 1.1313 at the most. But of course, the market can do whatever it likes, including rise above 1.1372, so I’ll just have to wait to see what actually happens. (P.S. I understand there is one school of thought which, given that long candlestick, would expect the market makers to force the rate back down to at least 1.1293, more-or-less, so they can reconcile their upside down positions. So, Sunday/Monday could prove somewhat interesting.)
Hi expiated... i like this.. !! Only worry for me would be on the 5Min charts there wouldn't be much space to play... If this can be tried on the 1H and 4H charts that would mean we may have like 40 to 50 pip moves.. that would be awesome!!
Because I am trading with extremely tiny accounts, my goal is to come as close as possible to: (1) avoiding any drawdown whatsoever and (2) attaining a nearly perfect daily success rate. Consequently, my style is to eliminate any space to play and instead capitalize on every surge in the direction of the trend, exiting (or reversing) positions during each pullback. Second, in actual practice, my levels are defined by the bands of moving average envelopes set at specific percentages of deviation—not by horizontal lines—so that drawing them on higher timeframe charts is no more difficult than plotting them on the lower ones. And finally, during live use, entries and exits are guided by key moving averages (not drawn on the above image) with the result being that 40 to 50 pip moves can be realized without much difficulty by traders willing to risk drawdowns, and who have the patience to wait them out, as illustrated by the image of the higher timeframe chart below. For me, it’s all about statistical probability based on historical data. I believe the Forex market is highly predictive and seek to take advantage of this. I had someone try to tell me that Jim Simons does not share this belief about markets, but my disagreement on this point was once again reinforced just yesterday by someone who posted a video of one of his interviews. In his own words… “In looking at the patterns of prices, I could see there was something we could study here, that there were maybe some ways to predict prices mathematically or statistically.” In another article I read how he hired a mathematician whom he’d met at the I.D.A. and they began to create models that predicted the direction of currency prices. I also read where another interviewer said that at seventy-one, Simons retired, turning his fund’s management over to two speech-recognition experts whom he’d brought on board in 1993, stating that language is very predictive, and he foresaw that these two would apply their skills to the markets. I very much agree with this, which is why I don’t use Fibonacci ratios, Elliott waves, harmonic patterns, pivot points or the like. I like forecast models that are based on nothing more than moving averages and repetitious (predictive) price range patterns.