EURUSD for the week of 3/30/08

Discussion in 'Forex' started by atticus, Mar 31, 2008.

  1. Nice reversal forming. I am short deltas in EURUSD and CL. Neutral delta at 1.5730
  2. Upside in equities should continue EUR/USD sell off. 1.5730 you say. I have daily pivot here at 5792, so we should see some choppiness here then 5770 will be solid support, will be paying close attention to PA around those levels. Would a big green day in equities cause EUR/USD to drift like the yens do?
  3. I am neutral to 1.5730, but it's not a target per se, although I am fairly confident we touch it by Wednesday's NY fix. I have a 1.5730 vanilla straddle coming off at Wed's NYF. It was a 7-day straddle from 1.88.
  4. Great, thank you for your commentary.

    You may now return to your regularly scheduled program.

    (Useless commentary from ET armchair economists.)
  5. Yes it is. On a 5 minute chart, the morning trip from 158 to 159 and down, looked like the reverse of letter V. It should look like V (as in Victory) if seen on USD/EUR pricing.

    What does CL. stand for (sorry atticus if I am asking a trivial question)?

    I was also short after I left EUR/JPY, and I just closed the position @ 1.5760 and I am now flat on EUR/USD. I will see if it make a trip back up to short it again. There might be some bulls still in there tobe taken out.

    Do you know how the implied vol is doing? If it is still up there we should look for continued action. If it is declining, then maybe we are heading for a close fight before a good move down.
  6. CL is the ticker for NYMEX crude oil. Vols have dropped ~30bp. Trade has been very tight, but vols rise with EURUSD spot.
  7. I just closed my short at 1.5759. It is already below 1.5770. I will see how it does on the way up (if any), and as usual I short when I determine the fall is about to start, or has just started.

    Are you bullish on it? Since support of 5770 is broken , maybe you should look at 5792 pivot as a resitance to short at? I think the equities need a sort of sell off before heading up, or they may stay there waiting for the technicals to catch up.
  8. Thanks: "Vols have dropped": do you mean the realized or the implied? For crude or EUR/USD?

    You always suprise me. Do you mean that CL and EUR/USD are closely correlated? I did not know that. Thanks. Please expand if you can. Thanks.
  9. Over the next 36 hours what the bulls can do is probably keep it within the triangle if they are strong enough. 1.5730 is within the triangle, and the Wednesday time frame mentioned in earlier posts.
  10. Both stat and implied in EURUSD.

    Crude oil is priced in dollars. The relationship is analogous to bond Px/rates. As the dollar falls, crude rises to maintain parity in the non-dollar World. The correlation has been >80% 12mo-trailing. Therefore, the price of EURUSD and CL are highly [+] correlated.
    #10     Mar 31, 2008