Hi Lucrum, Thanks for your comment. I didn't mean to force everyone to believe in what I expect in my chart. I just want to share my view, so you can have another view for your trading plan. I use the Elliott Wave pattern to help my trading. It's has help me a lot. But, if it don't go the way we expected, we still have more risk control over it. Because we would have like a warning message that said "hey, this is not going to be the pattern you expected!". And yes, I do have a stop loss. Before enter any trade, I will dig deeper into a 60 minutes and 15 minutes charts. Sometimes even dig deeper into a 5 minute chart. So we would know what to expect. Usually for the Elliott wave pattern there will be either 3 waves or 5 waves move. If it's a 3 waves then this mean it's in a corrective mode. The price won't move much. If we see a 5 waves move, then we know that it's a motive wave. The price can move much more. This is very useful when we look deeper in the sub-minute chart. Let's take EURUSD for example, This is the chart I used for my trade. As you can see that I use 240 minutes chart to see the big picture. Then to see what is the next possibility, I dig deeper into 15 minutes chart. Ok, look at the 15 minutes chart. See the wave i(yellow), can you see that there are 5 waves in that move? Yes, there is 5 waves move from b(pink) to i(yellow). If we only see this 15 minutes chart we may think that this could only be a small c wave and expected to see the down move. But, don't forget to look back into the 240 minutes chart! It's more likely to move up. So that's why I expect this to be a wave i(yellow) as it have 5 waves move up. So what to be expected after wave i(yellow)? The rule of Elliott Wave is that if it's a motive wave, there will always consist of 5 waves. So, I expect to see only a small retrace of this wave i(yellow) and to help me on this I set a Fibonacci retrace. The best Fibonacci that could hold for a support is about 61.8%. So that would be my stop loss level. If it goes under that level, there is less chance to climb up! And as I said, it yelling "Hey, this is not your wave ii(yellow)!! as it move down too much!" But in this case, that Fibonacci level can hold it. Then this could be a second wave (wave ii yellow). And expected to see the next third wave up, which is the longest wave among the five wave pattern. To me, Elliott Wave is the best analysis to help you trade any market! And yes, by combine it will other indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD, Trend line and Fibonacci. You've to learn and practice, don't judge a book by its cover! Happy trading! Cheers!
2008-12-15 The current short term move seem that EURUSD may already done the fourth wave correction and heading to the fifth wave.
Hi Forexbullbear, Interesting thread. Where did you go to learn about Elliott Wave? Books (Frost and Prechter?), online sources? Thanks
Hi TraderGreg, Yes, I first started from my friend who is really good at Elliott wave and then I dig deeper with Frost and Prechter on www.elliottwave.com and from other online resources. Also from "Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method" e-book. This book is more advance by emphasise on Fibonacci to see how wave form.
Hi, Looking into 60 minutes chart. We're still in the bullish extension wave. We'll have to keep watching the EMA5(light red), EMA10(light orange) and EMA50 (light blue), if the price can stay up above EMA50 we can expect for more up move. Currently, there seem to nearly done the third wave (3? orange bracket in chart and 3 circle in pattern), so there may be some correction soon.
Thanks for the e-book! I have previously subscribed to and downloaded everything free from elliottwave.com, and also have Frost and Prechter waiting for me when finally I get home later this week. Are you affiliated with the site? Also, I know a little bit about incorporating patterns (like wedges) and fibs with elliott waves, but how do you incorporate your other indicators -- are you just looking for ways to filter the fakeouts and oscillations from the sustainable waves? Btw, I don't know enough about elliott waves right now to really use it in my trading besides in certain reversal patterns, but I might share some opinions as I learn more and continue with research.
Hi TraderGreg, My pleasure to have you download the e-book. I got the e-book version from my friend, so just want to share it. However, if you find out that the book is really useful to you and you want to have a hardcover book for your reference, you can buy the hardcover book from amazon.com I'm currently not affiliate with elliottwave.com, but their free content for affiliate seem interesting, so I may join them in the future. I'm currently compiling all the wave pattern that we would have seen in any market and will post in my download section soon. Actually, the compilation is done, I just have to make it a pdf version. The main key to success in using Elliott wave is to recognize all the pattern, so we can predict the possible move in real time trading. Let's think of it as you were watching an artist drawing someone face. When he first start the drawing, no one would know what he's drawing, until he finished drawing nose, eyes, ears, etc.. Elliott wave is the same, once the first wave pattern is completed, we can predict another move. For a short summary, Elliott wave consists of only two modes. Motive and Corrective. Then in each wave mode there are sub-categories and some sub-categories under each sub. Motive has 2 sub. 1. Impulse --- Extension --- Truncation 2. Diagonal --- Ending --- Leading Corrective has 4 sub 1. Zigzags --- Single --- Double --- Triple 2. Flats --- Regular --- Expanded --- Running 3. Triangles --- Ascending --- Descending --- Contracting --- Expanding 4. Combinations Above are all the wave pattern that we will see in any market. You just have to recognize and familiar with all of them, so you can predict the possible next move in real time. That's really is for Elliott Wave. Since you have time to watch the market move in real time, I'm sure it's a good opportunity for you to learn Elliott wave fast. For me I've been watching a chart move in real time for over 3 years now. But, I was with a stock market. I must say it's much harder in Forex market since it's a leverage market and most of the time it's moving in corrective mode. About the other indicators I used them by looking at my EMA5 EMA10 EMA50 and EMA200 for the trend, and then use RSI and MACD to see the momemtum. And welcome you to the Elliott Wave world, you'll get many more benefits once you recognize and familiar with them. Happy Trading! Cheer!
EUR/USD is now at 1.3672. Take at least 50% of the profits of as it may not touch 1.3660. Profits are: 40 pips!
12:18 PM GMT time, It turned out that we're on the right track as the last move was completed in Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) wave. We have to look into 15 minutes chart for all the 5?(light blue) wave. Look back in 60 minutes chart, the first support of the correction is EMA50(light blue) and then Fibonacci 38.2% Ending Diagonal: -occurs primarily in the fifth wave, when the prior move has gone "too far too fast" - In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. -take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three, 3-3-3-3-3"