EURUSD Daily Elliott Wave Updates

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by forexbullbear, Dec 9, 2008.

  1. Hi, I'm using an Elliott Wave as the main tool to help me trade. I use it together with EMA, RSI, MACD, Fibonacci and Trend line. It works very well for me, so I would like to share my wave count view here. I'll update the chart on any possible trend daily or as often as I have available time. :D

    If anyone here have anything to share, please don't hesitate to do so. I would love to see other people views too. :)

    Let's first see the EURUSD short term, it looked ready to go down again; provided that the price don't move higher than the resistant pink line. Or, if the second wave does not complete yet, it should not move higher than the latest high(the start of first wave).

    This move might be another leg down to form a 1,2,3,4,5 wave(yellow); or could be just a correction wave forming as A,B,C.
    We'll have to see what will be when the formation is done.

    Click to see the chart
     
  2. If we count the wave right in the bigger picture, This should currently be a fourth wave(yellow).
    And we expecting a Triangle correction here, so there will have A,B,C,D and E wave.
    The E wave may already done, or can be another up move to complete E wave.
    Once E wave done, we can expect to see another down move to the fifth wave(yellow).

    Click to see 240 minutes chart

    To understand thing clearer, let's have a look at the big picture for an example.

    In this weekly chart:
    Click to see weekly chart

    you'll see that the fourth wave (both iv pink) was forming with complicated correction. This is normal for corrective pattern. There are only 4 main categories of corrective wave.

    Corrective wave has four categories:
    1. Zigzags
    2. Flats
    3. Triangles
    4. Double & Triple Threes.

    And the rule of alternation is fourth wave will be vary from second wave. This mean, if the second wave is simple correction, the fourth wave will be complicated, and vice versa. (see wave ii(pink) and iv(pink) for an example)

    And in our case, there are currently two cases of possibility in big picture.

    1. The current down trend is forming 1,2,3,4 and 5 wave (yellow), we weight our wave count on this pattern.
    We just don't know exactly what would be the end of wave 4. As you can see wave 2?(yellow) is simple correction, so we can expect to see a complicated correction here if it's really a wave 4?(yellow)

    2. The current down trend is forming A,B,C (green) pattern.
    This can also be the ABC correction, it may or may not completed the formation. So we'll have to plan for this move if EURUSD move higher.
     
  3. Yesterday's short term move was still moving up. However the big picture view is still in Triangle correction as long as the price does not move above the pink line(C yellow).
    The current move in 240 minutes chart is also moving in Triangle and RSI is making a divergence, we may see some price drop soon.
    However, at this point as the price is very close to the C(yellow) wave, we will have to think of another possibility of wave pattern, especially when the price do move above the pink line(C yellow).

    [​IMG]

    If the price do move above the pink line, the whole pattern will change.
    We can think of the possibility that C(yellow) may not yet done and it will move higher again once it made some correction.

    Click to see another possible wave pattern...
     
  4. The wave pattern is changing now. This seem to be a bullish Extension in Wave3 heading to C(yellow) wave as it goes up without any correction. We can expect to see it move much higher than A(yellow) wave.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. How far the current up trend will be going is depend on the wave pattern in daily chart. From the latest high down to the latest low, we can currently see it in two cases.

    1.The daily down move is 1,2,3 yellow and the current up move will only move to wave 4 yellow. If this is the case we can expect the price to move to about Fibonacci 38.2%, and not move higher than wave 1 yellow (pink line).

    2.The daily down move is A,B,C blue and the current up move will make another big A,B,C up. If this is the case we can expect the price to move higher than Fibonacci 38.2% and higher than wave 1 yellow (pink line)

    [​IMG]
     
  6. EURUSD still making a bullish Extension Wave. The price is above EMA50(light blue) and EMA200(white) in 60 minutes chart, we can expect to see the price to move up higher. Currently, it may already done or nearly complete wave iii(pink) and RSI is quite overbought, we can expect to see some correction to wave iv(pink) and then up again to complete wave v(pink) and also complete wave 3(green).

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Look like wave iii(pink is done) and we are in wave iv(pink). This correction might be a Flat Correction? [​IMG]
     
  8. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    "In short term, it looked ready to go down again; provided that the price don't move higher than the resistant pink line. Or, if the second wave does not complete yet, it should not move higher than the latest high(the start of first wave).
    This move might be another leg down to form a 1,2,3,4,5 wave; or could be just a correction wave forming as A,B,C.
    We'll have to see what will be when the formation is done."




    Yeah that's definitely EW uh "analysis".
     
  9. Hi Lucrum,
    Thank for your comment. Remember, no prediction has a 100% accuracy rate, you'll have to judge the possibility in every move. Always have another plan for your trading.
    If we count the wave right, it'll forming in the pattern we can expect.
    Every trading is a game of risk versus reward.

    Happy Trading!
     
  10. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Then what do we need you for?
     
    #10     Dec 12, 2008