No no...I think that degree of a drop is not a likely occurance. But I do see a push back under 1.50 relatively soon. "Soon", of course, being the word left open for discussion.
The underlying asset markets (equity markets performance) are key to fx performance. Capital and trade flows, supply and demand, money pouring out of the US into emerging markets, it will eventually turn around in favor of the dollar I believe. The dollar is yield negative on the one hand, but then risk aversion supports the dollar, it's anyone's guess which one will win that argument, I go with the dollar. On top of that the ECB will be forced to cut at some point once inflation is sorted out and growth becomes a problem, but then 'when' depends on oil to a certain extent........and so it goes on, round and round, I'm just glad I took the simple route and opted for technicals rather than fundamentals! When the chart says short I won't argue
Well, it's certainly not just about rates and hiking/cutting. If it were, there are plenty of other currencies out there that are much more attractive, yet the Euro continues to appreciate against them.
That's true, of course... and it's also a useless lagging indicator for those trying to predict <b>future</b> long-term currency movements. Those same central banks also dumped their gold bullion en masse in the late '90's, if you recall.
Here is an interesting article that supports the OP's thoughts... http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro_in_Final_Stage_of_1204818974743.html
Technicals on the EUR/USD together with central banks converting $ for ⬠, years ago was my decision to go long the EUR/USD , it has paid off well, now my stop is just under the 1.5 level
yeps...looks clear, although a cross extention over fibo 3rd or 4rth level is almost reached...whatch out for a serious blow up to the dollar and cover your positions if your bet is south! same occured when euro went up from 1.30 till 1.45 Momentum is so hot a real break is imminent..my bet is 1.60$ for a euro. ZC
Elliot Rave'rs, omg :eek: "Although the specific count eludes us......" I wonder how many of them have a different count.