After Lots of check and estimation... I came up with this over the next 2 weeks IMO we see major drops in the euro Some bottom around 1.44 But a temp one My best guess it at 1.5400 to 1.5450 and for the low at 1.44 to 1.4430 good luck
Well, we've got two folks claiming one way and two the other. Will be interesting to see which two have to "eat crow".
Ivan! good to read you, you are now moderator good, I remember you were living somewher in moscow and you had the love of the photographic details, I lost the link to your blog. Z Comandatore from Paris Nb: You still like to trade the cable?
It's hard to imagine what catalyst would cause a 10c drop in two weeks, unless the ECB cuts rates or Trichet says something crazy today, or Bernanke loses the plot altogether and starts hiking! Fundamentally - the Fed is cutting rates trying to save the US economy from recession (a bit too late for that!), while the ECB are keeping rates on hold as they're more worried about inflation. They've already said Eur/Usd at these levels is no problem as long as the move is 'orderly'. Technically 1.5725 area on a monthly chart as far as I can see. I trade intraday off a 15 min chart so it makes no odds to me where it goes longer term, two weeks is a lifetime in forex, the next two minutes is all that matters to me! Like Ivan (the Mod!!) says, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
No, actually I've gotten away from cable and more into the Comdols (AUD, CAD, NZD).... On the EUR/USD, however, I think the move is beginning to look a bit exhausted. Historically, EUR moves don't often last long when they're this overbought (RSI). Additionally, I think the ECB isn't as happy as Cabletrader believes with the Euro at this level. In the 1.40s, perhaps. But not here. And especially with the speed of this up move.
It's a bit like the US supporting a strong dollar, the market just ain't letting it happen and I can't see any central bank intervening here. I agree the move is overdone, I've been looking for a top (well actually a bottom on dollar/swiss) for a while because I think the dollar will recover in q2 and q3, but Eur 1000 pips south in 2 weeks? Anything's possible but what would cause such a move, what would be the fundamental reason to sell Eur and buy dollars apart from covering longs?
There is a major shift away from the dollar into the euro (just look at the reserve holdings of central banks) It's not only interest rates that rule currency moves