2 weeks ago i'd said ' W 4 complete ' - wrong personally i get impatient with the price not moving as quickly as i'd like it to and complete a particular formation; there are times though when it moves unexpectedly quickly and gets ahead of me, the bane of a 24H market i was impressed with the mar 15-17 AB/Reversal formation and accepted it as a reason to say - W 4 complete, notwithstanding the whole formation from feb 2 until the 17th was hardly a W 4 when compared with the dec 22 - jan 13 W 2 formation, where was the 'complexity' ? - 'rule of alternation' ? - but at least i could 'get rid' of W 4 ! what i believe has occurred is mar 15-17 was A, mar 25 B and the price is currently doing C, which when complete, will be the completion of W 4, so the question now is, how high and for how long will C carry ? it's possible that mon/tue would see a high and completion, but the move could easily run until fri, thur is the regular BoE and ECB announcement but interest rates are likely to be a non-event and the euro may well end with an Up week, possibly another AB/Reversal formation by the week end and begin the next Down wave next week 1.36 , or as high as 1.375 - 1.38+ . . chart: 4H
previously . . wrong wrong ? last friday saw the euro break the upper line of a major sec - dotted - drawn from the Nov 25/09 HH a new sec drawn from the H of Oct 22/09 is being used as a guide, the HC of the Weekly was Oct 23 likewise a sec drawn from the Mar 25 is being used producing a target date of Apr 22 where the 2 sec intersect, below the 50 retracement level of the Jan 1/10 HH Mar 25 LL - presumed to be the 'active' fibo, since the Apr 1 H closed on the 23.6; could the 38.2 near 1.3760 be the C retracement high ? or is 1.36 going to be the high ? NB secs are arbitrary possibilities: 1 - March 25 was W 5 complete, April 8 completed a 'major' AB Reversal formation, a large Retracement rally has begun 2 - March 25 was B of W 4, April 8 completed a large AB Reversal, C has begun and may continue to the 1.3750/1.38 area 3 - A was W 4 ? - 1.36 level, March 25 was w 1 of W 5, now doing c of w 2 will last until tue europe mid morning, if so - w 2 of W 5 - later with a reversal then Down to much lower lows so the April 1 high about 1.3590 should be watched to see how the price stops or goes through that level, and then the March 12-17 highs levels of 1.37 - 1.38; is there the possibility of Upwardness for 2 weeks - April 23 ? possibly into the early part of the last week of April ? depending on if there's a reversal formation, then Down ? chart: D, 4H
i'm a 'bit' late to this, but has the euro bottomed ? was the March 25 L a 'truncated 5th' ? Greece aside the euro began falling at the same time as the $ began to rally, so i'm more inclined to watch the $ than the Greek debt machinations since the euro's bottomed it means the $'s topped - or v v had last week's high stopped at the 1.36 area and then declined, i'd say we're on w 3 of W 5, as it is, the price went high enough that i'm undecided if it's going higher and make the C in the 1.37/ 8 area, or it's Down from here there was fairly large AB reversal into the 76.4, so what's to consider is if the downside now is an abc or if the AB was ab and we're on c - 4H , or, if the price travels sideways completing what's a H&S formation, the $ dumps and euro rockets up the problem with Reversal formations - which is why Elliott created the AB label is you don't know if it's a reversal or w 1-2 , reversal formations don't always appear, although they appear a lot in the eurusd so right now is no-man's land for me but biased to more Up, closing the week at a High, but not committing to more till next week; i'm thinking of the price dropping to new fibo 61.8 levels around 1.3425 - 1.3440 and beginning the rally mon, - tue session But, see the 'did the $ top' thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=196583 charts: most of the 6E volume comes in around 8am pst - 4pm UK, the 'europeans'' knock-off time; the 60min 6E chart shows the previous 7 days, notably the very high volume on fri april 9 (25 contracts per second); high vol doesn't mean large price moves although the 9th and sun Greece loan announcement paid off for the fri Buys, except there wasn't anywhere near the same volume closing the Buys on sun night when the 1.3690+ was hit, but there is more correlation during the week - the lows last fri in particularly also included is a 15min Oanda chart of last sunday's trading, first trade 9:15am pst L 1.3500 , 2pm pst H 1.3674 for a total of 174 pips , spread went to 20 pips MT4 - fri C 1.34981 sun O 1.36264 , gap up 128 pips 6E opened like Oanda at the fri close, price moved fast, 900+ contracts traded during the first couple of minutes 4H new fibos, secs, and Daily
FFR wed 28; GDP fri 30; ECB thur may 6; NFP fri may 7; BOE mon may 10 calendar has both US and rest of the world, can be 'next week' ahead but no charts http://www.ac-markets.com/forex-news/economic-calendar.aspx the possibility is for the $/euro to be traded down/up during this week possibly into next week prior to the NFP, with a presumption the release will be quite positive resulting in a longer rally/decline afterwards going to a w 5 , $ 84 area ⬠1.27area current target prices: 1.3650 , 1.38 areas charts: D , 4H
Greece's â¬300B ($401.2B) debt v â¬240B annual economic output 'Euro Crisis a Death by A Thousand Day Trades' - Christopher Quigley - Apr 30/10 "If the Euro actually had a real central bank the sovereign nations of the European Super State would be able to borrow under its aegis, they cannot. This means the Euro is not a 'currency' as such but in actual fact is an exchange rate mechanism only." http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19081.html the PIIGS refunding will continue thru the summer and into the fall 'In and Out of Each Otherâs European Wallets' - see chart âIn the end, weâre all saying we donât know how to deal with it [cross country debt]â http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02schwartz.html France is owed at least $901B and Germany at least $604B Nonfarm Payrolls - to be released on 5/7/2010 - 8:30:00am est for Apr 2010 . . . . . . . . . . Prior Consensus - Consensus Range M/M change 162,000 200,000 - 110,000 to 500,000 meanwhile, a small rally for a couple of hours on the sun/mon opening, then down ? charts: M W D 4H
6E record volumes: April 27: 541,151 28: 609,313 May 5: 569,862 6: 828,859 7: 667,749 'EU Finance Ministers Race to Ready Euro Fund Before Asia Opens' May 8/10 by James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 9 (Bloomberg) "EU finance ministers meet today to hammer out the details of an emergency fund to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11 year-old euro. [European stabilization mechanism - news check pre 'opening' - any Oanda trading ?] Jolted into action by last weekâs slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready before Asian markets open later today European time. âWe will defend the euro, whatever it takes,â European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters in the early hours yesterday after the leaders met in Brussels." http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ace-to-ready-euro-fund-before-asia-opens.html "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana "Black Wednesday refers to the events of 16 September 1992 when the Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower limit. George Soros, the most high profile of the currency market investors, made over US$1 billion profit by short selling sterling. In 1997 the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion, with the actual cost being £3.3 billion which was revealed in 2005 under the Freedom of Information Act (FoI)[1]. The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800m, but the main loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The papers show that if the government had maintained $24bn foreign currency reserves and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4bn profit on sterling's devaluation.[2] Newspapers also revealed that the Treasury spent £27bn of reserves in propping up the pound." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday euro PPP is currently less than 5% v $ and - 4% v C$ Thur's L hit a major 38.2 and the Fri C sits on a diagonal meridian line the L penetrated - a Monthly chart - (similar to the Weekly that it broke this week) the 50 is in the 1.17 area the 2005 L looking at the 15m, i'll be waiting to see if it runs up on the sun/mon opening to maybe 1.2822 , then resumes the downtrend ? bases ?
if last sun/mon's rally was A, this week's decline B, then we should see a rally forming C that may last the whole of this week and the downtrend resume May 24 while the A was a massive 570 or so pips and B 740 or so pips, i'm expecting C to be a lot smaller; look at the Daily Close, either an MA 1SC on the chart or a Line chart the A wave is much more proportional, in keeping with this w 5 , and on the adjusted secs the A wave Close only came up to the median line, if that were to be the wave C target it'd be below 1.2700 as the week progresses 60min wave C fibo price targets: 23.6/1.2520, 38.2/1.2620 50/1.2700, 61.8/1.2780 the 60 and lowers look like a base formed at friday's Close, but it's possible the euro will open down, maybe at the 1.2300 or 1.2250 areas - cracking the Oct 08 L of 1.2330 friday's L was 1.2353 current price/time target is 1.1600 area in the second week of June for W 5 which would puncture the Oct 2000 LL - Nov 09 HH at the 50% Correction level the 61.8 level is around 1.0900 chart: D
i'm uncertain what will go on next with the euro there's often in a downtrend v v uptrend an 'if it goes up first it'll drop lower, down first it'll rally' and i was expecting the latter last week while the price stayed within the secs the L was lower than i expected â i'd neglected to draw the HH - LL major correction fibo on my charts and not realized that its 50% was at 1.2133 - wednesday's LL was 1.21432 - 6E 1.2140 this fibo also means its 61.8 price is around 1.12 and there's also that support line from the nov 2005 LL/LC around the 1.17 area so was may 6 or may 18 w 3 ? - a straight drop to 1.17 area or, a period of correction until B and C complete - B down to 1.20 area ?, C up to 1.25 ? 1.23 ? 1.27 ? or have 5 waves completed ? 3 weeks for the BC correction then more downside ? interestingly, all the major fibos have their 76.4s congregating around par - 1.00 charts: 60 4H D
the $ has very defined 5 wave formations on the D and W the D in particular looks as though it's formed a reversal formation - euro bottomed ??? but what looks like B of an AB may instead be w 0-1 of w 5 and it's completing w 2 no reversal formation is seen on the W and i have to go with the idea the $ may break 90 euro scenarios: an AB's completed, it'll now start an ABC w 4 correction A and B of the w 4 correction have completed, C has started euro's bottomed and it's started a rally correction of the 3,000 pip drop 60 , 4H - waves 0-1-2 of w 5 have completed, w 3 begins monday
down i think we cannot expect anything else, how fast will a drop to 1.17 - 1.1650 be ? to what i'll expect is a strong - if temporary support level, while the $ runs to the 09 H of 90.30 and . . .