while 'that part' of the correction's over, i'm wondering what's next - a series of ABs ? an AB base has formed ? more correcting ? straight down ? a lowest target from the Jan 30 post was the 1.345 area, 1.375 broke and we're half an inch away from the 1.345 area measured from the last low of 1.353, so presuming 1.345 gets taken out - 61.8s, the next low target is 1.31 area - 76.4s, with a mid target of 1.33 with the EU ministers' meeting Mon-Tues, it's possible there'll be a rally until they make some announcement, or, do you think the price will drop until the announcement ? overall the direction is still down, but, depending on a wave count at some point there should be a longer correction - W 4 ? MOST IMPORTANT : WHAT will they announce they WILL DO ? WHEN WILL THEY ANNOUNCE ? - if you know or find out - please post here - date/time until the above are out, trading may be dodgey and perhaps precarious around the time of the announcement, even havoc ridden if there's no forewarning - be forewarned perhaps similar to an NFP release of BoJ repurchase, although one has to presume that the announcement will be positive - rally ? charts: 60min, 4H, D, M, Purchasing Power Parity comparison charts, Feb 08 to current a couple i've read from thousands being written and published 'Will Greece Repeat Argentina's 2001 Fiasco ?' http://www.minyanville.com/business...covenants-euro-dollar-peso/2/10/2010/id/26810 'EU braced to ride to rescue of Greece as euro sinks' http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/14/greece-eurozone-public-deficit-finance-euro
there's the possibility the price could rally to 1.3750/1.38 since it's often done that previously after making a new low, maybe only 1.365+ this time however more downside is expected and i'm wondering if the price will drop as low as 1.30 before the month end - which this week, but perhaps start the fall this week and complete during the first week of March 1.30 is the lower 76.4; 1.32 is the 38.2 originating from the 2002 LL and also has a significant rising sec line that intersects the 38.2 line below that is the median line of the horizontal sec lines that comes in around 1.27 near the LC of 2008&9, an 85.4 fibo and a note that in Oct 08 the price fell some 1847 pips, kissed the 50% and during Dec 08 rallied 2173 pips, so the possibility exist for March to be a big month, especially if the 38.2 doesn't hold
the $ can easily travel to 0.83 - a confluence of several fibos - Friday's close was 80.44 there's several scenarios including rallying forever, ralling to 0.90 then falling back and basing around 0.70, rally to 0.83 then decline, decline below 0.70 and etc taking a few weeks to many months to complete Friday's the NFP release, Thursday the BoE and ECB announcements while it has been declining, the eurusd has spent the month going through a long correcting period, diddling around with the higher 61.8 level without a close on or below the line - but Very close to the level with its first hit this week i think we could see 1.3740 - 1.380 - turn Tue/Wed down to Friday the only horizontal lines i see on the Monthly is the 2004 HH and HC, whereas the 1989 HH being passed, its HC is that 1.32 area coinciding with a 38.2 but above the 76.4s/1.30-1.31 on the Daily, i think both those target should be reached this month the alternate - and there always has to be one is a rally thru part of March to complete a W 4, although if February has seen W 4, it's a terribly weak formation tho not so surprising given what's going on with the European debt nations dates: March 3, 18 - revisable
looking for the euro to hit the 50/s - 1.3765/1.38 but a drop down to 1.3580 ? 1.3550 ? lower ? prior to the rally, then up, and begin a fall Tue/Wed like the proverbial song stuck in one's head, i keep thinking of 'sell in May and go away' which may well apply to stocks but is a time target for both a $ top and the end of the Greek re-financing, quite a lengthy down period for the euro if that's the case attached 4H has new secs - to be adjusted if there's a rally to 1.38 then a fall
to date, i don't believe the Greeks have asked for a bailout the Guardian article via Reuters about 'bailout' states: "The 16 euro zone members have agreed on "coordinated bilateral contributions" in the form of loans or loan guarantees to Greece IF Athens is unable to refinance its debts and asks the European Union for help, the Guardian quoted a senior European Commission official as saying." my emphasis added EU finance minister meeting on March 16 what i'm looking for is the completion of W4 EW's 'rule of alternation' is if W2 is simple W4 will be complex or v v of course you don't know which'll be which in most cases till afterwards however lets presume that W2 was simple so this W4 should be complex which means March will be an Up month and the correction won't end until the 'last' week of March and then begin to fall the first week of April - coinciding with the NFP report the feb 18 ~ mar 2 period was an ABAB or M or inverted H&S base formation and in a sense W4 didn't begin till after Mar 2, although W1, 2 of the 3 waves probably completed on Tue mar 9 Major W2 corrected 38.2 of its drop, currently W4 is between 23.6 and 38.2 and has hit a major 50 fibo, can W4 get to the 38.2 / 61.8 at 1.41+ ? updated Daily chart has new fibos, secs, dates included is an older set of charts of trades on the 6E and ES futures contracts using fibos and channels, on 12 and 30 Tick charts
the $'s strong horizontal correction like the euro's ended on the 16th, but for the euro it was the B of an AB reversal formation - W 4 complete - then hits a 50 retracement fibo the next day and as you know, dropped it's interesting that one of the longterm secs from Oct 08 was the 'stopping line' for the March 12-17 reversal highs, so look for a price bounce off that 'new sec set at 1' line and playing around until the 26th the critical price level is 1.34 since it's the lowest of the 61.8s, friday's close was on the highest, mon 29 may also be a critical date where the price may break through a 'last' sec median and outer sec boundary line paving the way for a drop to the lower 1.30s/1.30
i've just opened Oanda's trading platform - 1:30pm pst - to find the euro rallied 120 or so pips to 1.3526, currently 1.3473 , quite a surprise that rally took it near to the higher 61.8, penetrating a 50 retracement level based on the Mar 16 HC but below the 50 of the Mar 17 HH i'm at loss to know what'll happen this week, Friday a holiday so all the other markets except the fx are closed, but the NFP will be released and there is expectations it'll be very positive, Consensus 75,000 to 300,000 is the current move w C / 2 of 5 down ? w 4 of w 1 ? w 4 of 5 ? is what we've seen to date since Nov 09, merely waves 1 and 2 of 5 down ? - w 3's begun ? during the 08 - 09 period when the price dropped to 1.23/25 , fibos based on the 00 - 02 Ls/LCs to 08 HH , the price broke straight thru the 38.2s without stopping, and i wonder if 1.32 - 1.305 might form a ledge for the price to cling to, while a horizontal line from the April 09 LL of 1.2884 (LC 1.2927) provides a last support level before a drop to 1.25 - and lower it's suprised me the chf hasn't rallied anywhere near the extent of the $ and i wonder if there'll be an explosive rally that'll take it above the 1.09 H the $ has quickly rallied to take out the 50/61.8 , will it now continue up to 61.8/76.4 - about 84.16 or so, and eyeballing the waves, it certainly looks as tho it should go there, and top ? or is the current wave 3 of 5 ?
just wanted to add a comparison of charts of today's 'opening' 5:45pm pst - Alpari's MT4 1 min eurusd, AMP's NT 12 tick 6E and Oanda's 1 min eurusd charts - all attached in one image there was an Oanda trade at 10:00am pst then nothing till 11:07am when the rally took off, making its H of 1.3526 at 11:17am, then declined the 6E actually traded up from the 3pm pst opening of 1.3409 - only as high as 1.3489 of course, the MT4 opened at same time as the 6E but at 1.3470 rallied to 1.3474 then declined