eurusd - 6E - ($) lines - euro topped ???

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Wallace, Nov 15, 2009.

  1. i 'only' use fibos but there are some additional lines worth drawing on the Daily
    chart and transposing to lower timeframes since their start point of a significant
    HH, LL, HC, LC become significant support - resistance levels that coincidentally
    may also be fibo levels

    one can think of these lines as 'naturals', obvious really levels the price is bound to
    react, interact with, sometimes briefly, sometimes over an extended period of time

    black arrows indicate the start point of the horizontal line; the red horizontal only to
    indicate it's a 'current' line of interest that may provide price support; Standard Error
    Channels 3, 2, 1 plus the dotted white lines from the LL levels

    the Oct 22 - Nov 9 HCs look suspiciously like a Reversal formation, EW AB - inverted
    H&S — has the euro topped ?
    gathering strength before attempting a dash through the no-man's land of 1.50 - 1.53 ?
  2. i like your lines.. ive been using the same ones.

    i wanna see this test 1.45 (the bottom trend line)before the next leg up

    i think we would need some type of major catalyst to have a trend reversal at this point, and if it does happen it will come from the equities market.
  3. hi OTCkrak, i'm not expecting the euro to drop to 1.45, think it would go to 1.43 if
    it goes to 45, but 45 would make me think a top has occurred rather than what i
    currently think is a correction that should hold at 1.47 —
    if in fact it breaks the 1.48 where i've got an exact s/r line at 1.4830, which changes
    the nov 3 - current formation into a W 1 doing 2, ends friday and starts rallying again
    next week - 5th wave has begun ?

    lines on the original chart were all eyeballed, there's likely to be small differences
    between users' price levels as a result of the data source, and 6E different than euro
  4. just a small update to the chart
  5. see chart for additional fibos etc
  6. this Monthly chart illustrates the idea that the euro HAS topped, the $ bottomed

    looking at the chart i'd given the benefit of the doubt that the red A and B waves were an
    Elliott AB Reversal formation, but
    there could have been an ABC Correction - use black A and red A and B as the ABC labels -
    suggesting the euro would go to the moon - bust 1.60 - which could still be a scenario if one
    considers the black A and B are two thirds of an ABC Correction formation - but one that will
    not complete until 2011 ? then rally to bust 1.60 - but in any case still means a top
    and just to add some more conumdrumization, July/08 top to red B to red C is a Reversal
    formation - the euro's going to 0.85

    can there could be a re-rally until Feb and 1.55 reached before the fall begins - notice the
    Mar-Jul 2008 Reversal formation

    the question remains though — 'has the euro topped - $ bottomed ?'

    30+ years currency charts:
  7. possibilities:
    rally to 1.46
    correction formation W 1-2 then drops
    drops to 1.40 Dec 24 , 31 then correction formation
    drops to 1.38+ then correction formation
  8. i see a swing up to 1.48 before we see a bottom 1.36 around march, 2010 ends >1.5..
  9.'s topped but that doesn't imply it can't go back up. All it takes is something new in the fundamentals or global economics to change things.

    Here are some key price areas I'm currently monitoring in Forex Currency EurUsd via the monthly, weekly and daily charts. These levels are only valid until the price action trades through them and new levels will appear whenever there's a global economic event and TA via change in supply/demand coming together as one.

  10. correction over, starting Sun/Mon, down to 1.40 - Jan 29 / Feb 19
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    #10     Jan 10, 2010