eurusd 312day MA curve fit, 30 Sep 2022; likely sharp rise.

Discussion in 'Forex' started by avicenna, Oct 2, 2022.

  1. avicenna

    avicenna

    Hello,

    eurusd-x9-4515-30Sep22-btest.png
    eurusd-x9-312dma-30Sep22.png

    New here, first time posting..

    The chart above shows a curvefit for eurusd daily data:
    data start: 313/1.47, 30 Dec 2007
    data end: 30/Sep/2022 at point 4927. (the green is moving average)
    moving average = 52 x 6 = 312.
    fit range = 10.5 x 312; 1651 - 4927
    back testing: data end - 410 days.
    predicted MA bottom: 5082/1.0319; Actual: 30 Sep/2022 +(5082-4927 -156) or 30 Sep/2022 less 1 day;
    (We are at the very actual market bottom now, below 1.0319).
    predicted peaks; 5512/1.2732(+1.4 yrs); 5958/1.3808(+2.8 yrs).
    Reliability: Prediction 80% certainty.

    The above charts are from my curve-fitting program. It gets a formula fitting the moving average data of about 500 -1000 data points. Extrapolation forward and backward are taken to be predictions. If back testing together with the backward extrapolation is acceptable, then it assumes the forecast is acceptable.

    As can be seen in the two charts, the backward forecasts seems very close. So the likelihood is that the prediction is reliable .

    As we can see from the way forex moves, the extreme volatility can only be the result of speculations by big institutional players - even the central banks may be restricted by how much control they have. This last drop of the EURUSD has been sharp and furious; the rebound should also be as sudden and sharp.There cannot be any fundamental economic reason why the Euro should go down further - towards zero? It is all about the big speculators.

    Best regards.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2022