European Market Update 3/9: Markets Quiet Ahead of Payrolls Data in the US

- The European indices are currently trading in negative territory in the session after some poor earnings reports ahead of the open including results from European Aeronautic Defense, and Gyrus Group.
European government bonds as well as Gilts in the UK are trading relatively unchanged ahead of the payrolls data in the US today.
- The German wholesale price index exceeded analysts’ expectations for the month of February as did the January current account and trade balance figures. The German current account rose to its highest level on record at €16.2B.
- French industrial and manufacturing production fell below estimates for the month of January, while all of December’s numbers were revised lower. Similarly in the UK both industrial and manufacturing production fell below estimates, sending long gilt futures to session highs, and the pound to session lows.
- Markets are quiet ahead of the payrolls data in the US today. The Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of February is expected at 95K. Note that on Wednesday the ADP employment change was 57K against estimates of 100K. Wednesday's ADP figure was the first reading since the ADP ammended the methodology used for the calculation. The sample size was been increased by about 100K to cover about 350K of ADP's 500K customers. Note that, in an interview on CNBC, an ADP representative said that the ADP current ADP figure will best represent next month's revision to this month's Nonfarm figure (ie. the ADP figure best represents March's revion to February's data). Furthermore the representative said that for the current month, in ADP's view, a relatively accurate figure could be obtained by giving the ADP reading a 40% weighting, and general consensus estimates a 60% weighting, and then averaging out the data. This calculates out to approximately 110K. Note that a derivative auction on Wednesday yielded 99K, while a derivative today yielded 82.5K. Data is due out at 8:30 ET.
- Front month crude oil futures are currently trading slightly higher in what has been a quiet session on the energy front. Spot gold and spot sliver are also trading higher, while front month copper futures are trading lower in the session.

 

Anyone know why CNBC is posting the June Dow futures? Made me run to my computer to see if my YM March futures had been closed out last night, but they're still there, good till the 15th.

 

June is the more liquid contract at this time.