European Bond Market Preview 3/8

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TradeTheNews, Mar 8, 2007.

  1. TradeTheNews

    TradeTheNews ET Sponsor

    - European government bonds closed relatively unchanged in yesterday's session ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision today.
    - The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% today. The main focus amongst investors will probably be the post announcement conference. Investors will be monitoring Trichet for any indication as to what the ECB's next move will be. Any indication that rates are still low, or that policy is still accommodative is likely to be interpreted as a signal that the ECB will raise rates in the coming months. Investors are currently pricing in a 50% chance of another ECB interest rate hike after today's announcement. The announcement is due at 7:45 ET; the press conference is scheduled to start at around 8:30 ET.
    - Also in focus today will be German industrial production for the month of January, which is expected to rise from December. Industrial production is due out at 6:00 ET.
    - Similarly in the UK gilts closed lower ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision today.
    - The Bank of England is also set to announce an interest rate decision today. While the BOE is widely expected to keep rates on hold, there is a small minority of economists that see the BOE raising rates by 25 basis points. The rate announcement is due out at 7:00 ET.
    - One of the main points of focus in the BOE's decision is likely to be wage pressure. The KPMG/REC report published yesterday showed that February pay pressures reached an 8-month high, while February Temp pay pressures reached a 27-month high. The survey showed some tentative signs that demand for staff may be starting to ease, in which case pay pressures should also start to lessen.
    - Also in focus today will be HBOS house prices, which are expected to fall from January. House prices are due out at 3:00 ET.