I would do it right away. There are debt problems in GB. The general election has left UK in the worst position in many years. It's clear that no party will get the majority it needs to govern effectively. It could mean huge problems as they try to control the debt by taking important steps. David Cameron has just said that there won't be any new government before the markets open monday. This could make the Pound plunge pretty bad. I would say it could fall to a price range around $1.44 in the next week.
Perhaps even lower if nobody comes to an agreement within the middle of the next week or if there's going to be a new election
Ah...no. The Forex market throughput measures in trillions of dollars per day. America, and China, and the Eurozone have collectively, quite a bit of scratch, and at least some of them can print quite a bit more, but, not two trill per day. Not for long. I think I'll sit out for a bit, see what's what, then probably short paper currencies for...durable assets...like physical metal, and firearms, and food, and tillable acreage.
Weren't you there Friday? I think things will go badly for the UK if there's uncertainty about the viability and power of the Tory-LibDem coalition (which is entirely possible, given the grassroots origins of the two parties).
Just because then, for the majority of non-core countries, the cost of remaining in the EMU will exceed the cost of exit.
Really? Personally I haven't seen any kind of analysis that demonstrates this. Could you explain those costs and compare them to the benefits of being in the Eurozone?
There's been quite a lot written about it recently... One of the people I have personally heard talking about these things is Martin Wolf. There's also stuff by Marty Feldstein (who's been negative about the EMU since the beginning) and, possibly, Krugman. All of their writing is narrative, rather than quantitative, but I'll find some numbers for you as well.
Martinghoul / Ghost of Cutten, I started a spinoff thread "Greece leaving the EMU: how would it work?" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=198385 I am interested if you (and anyone else) has some thoughts on this. I'm also interested in any commentary / links that Martinghoul can provide regarding the costs associated with exiting the EMU.