Yep, I have been saying for years that, even if there is an issue with derivatives, total gross notional is an pretty meaningless measure of the issue. Mkt value is a better measure. If you want to use precedent and look at the Lehman default, a conservative estimate of the portfolio losses there is arnd $315mln. That, on a $9trn notional portfolio, is arnd 0.0035%.
I am in agreement with you, conceptually. I am just trying to be pragmatic about government, governance, regulations and stuff like that. I just don't think the answer to our ills is anything as extreme as most people like to suggest. Given our current state of development, the solutions are, unfortunately, likely to be complicated and involve balancing carefully on knife's edge.