Germany, France Impose Strict Monthlong Curbs to Rein in Virus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-nationwide-lockdown-in-france-as-cases-surge Harsh restrictions on movement to hit pandemic-weary public ‘Brutal brake’ on Covid-19 infections is needed, Macron says Germany and France will clamp down on movement for at least a month, coming close to the stringent lockdowns in the spring as Europe seeks to regain control of the rapid spread of the coronavirus. The European Union’s two biggest economies will shutter bars, restaurants and non-essential services, while allowing schools and most businesses to operate. The approach by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to strike a balance between protecting public health and avoiding another debilitating blow to the economy. “Today is a difficult day, for policy makers as well,” Merkel said at a press conference in Berlin. “We know what we’re demanding of the people.” France’s shutdown will start on Friday, while Germany’s restrictions will take effect on Monday. The moves are part of a series of tighter measures being imposed by governments across Europe, where more than 210,000 people have died from the disease and nearly 6.5 million have been infected. Germany, the U.K., Italy, Spain and Greece reported record daily increases in cases on Wednesday, while France’s weekly pace has been climbing for the past 26 days. Macron painted a bleak picture of France’s fight against the pandemic, warning that the country needs a “brutal brake” on infections. He said there could be 400,000 French fatalities from the disease in months if nothing is done, and intensive-care facilities will have 9,000 patients -- close to capacity -- by mid-November, based on current trends. “The virus is circulating in France at a speed that even the most pessimistic forecast didn’t foresee,” Macron said in an address televised nationally on Wednesday evening. “The measures we’ve taken have turned out to be insufficient to counter a wave that’s affecting all Europe.” What Our Economists Say “The options discussed by government so far could strip 0.8-2% off fourth quarter GDP if they stay in place for a month. This is in addition to the 1.1% contraction we are already forecasting for 4Q.” -- Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg Economics. Here’s the full INSIGHT. The French leader opened the prospect of easing some curbs if there’s an improvement in two weeks. The goal of the measures is to lower daily cases to 5,000 -- a far cry from the current average of more than 39,000 a day. Patients in hospitals and occupying intensive-care beds are already multiple times higher than at the start of the first lockdown. Hospitalizations stood at close to 19,000 on Tuesday, compared with just over 2,500 on March 17, according to data from health authorities. Close to 3,000 patients are in intensive-care units, compared with about 700 on the eve of the spring shutdown. While France is increasing intensive-care capacity, it’s not enough to handle the spread of the disease, Macron said. “A colossal effort was made with training and investment but it does not suffice to face this wave,” he said. “There’s no magical solution. We can’t build a different capacity in a few months.” National Effort European leaders have been forced to relent and revive strict curbs, which hammered economies in the second quarter, as contagion rates soar and hospitals come under strain. Merkel called for a concerted national effort to fight the pandemic. The partial shutdown was agreed after tense talks with the leaders of Germany’s 16 states -- some with less severe outbreaks resisted harsher restrictions imposed on them by the federal government. Tensions were high before the meeting, which was moved forward by two days in a sign of increased urgency. With the public weary of pandemic measures and protests increasing, the government sought to ease pressure by making availableup to10 billion euros ($11.7 billion) in aid for companies affected by the measures, including reimbursing as much as 75% of lost sales in November. Bloomberg Economics estimated that the impact of the measures will likely be much lower than the April lockdown, but still depress German output by about 0.6 percentage points in the fourth quarter. After failing to secure new measures two weeks ago, Merkel’s proposal was adopted almost entirely after cases surged since then. The German leader said that 75% of new infections couldn’t be tracked to their origin and hospitals risked being overwhelmed within weeks if trends continued. But there were still signs of division. The state of Thuringia requested that German parliament be asked to declare a national health emergency and back the measures -- largely an effort to check the authority of Merkel’s administration. Officials will gather again in two weeks to assess the impact of the measures. “I’m thankful that we reached agreement here after long discussions,” Merkel said. “We don’t want to fall into a national health emergency.” (More charts and information at the above url)
Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show BBC - https://tinyurl.com/y28on933 Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated. A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead. It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter. But an official Sage document, dated 14 October and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected. Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England. Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October." (More at above url)
Boris Johnson announces four-week national Covid lockdown in England https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nounces-national-lockdown-england-coronavirus A second national lockdown will be imposed across England from midnight on Thursday with all nonessential shops, restaurants, pubs and leisure facilities to close for at least four weeks, Boris Johnson has said. The prime minister dramatically escalated the country’s response to the pandemic in a press conference on Saturday evening, telling the public that “we must act now to contain this autumn surge”, with measures due to remain in place until 2 December. People have been told to “stay at home” where possible, but will be allowed to leave their homes for education, medical appointments, to shop for essential goods, and to work if they cannot work from home. Outdoor exercise will also be permitted, with members of the same household or one person from another household. People leaving home to care for vulnerable people, or to escape injury or harm, will be exempt from the rules. Takeaways and deliveries will continue to be allowed. The furlough scheme, covering 80% of the wages of workers who are temporarily laid off, will be extended throughout November, the prime minister said. Announcing the extension, Johnson apologised for the impact of coronavirus measures on businesses, saying: “I’m under no illusions about how difficult this will be for businesses which have already had to endure such hardship this year and I’m truly, truly sorry for that.” Under the new regulations, which will be published in full on Tuesday and voted on by MPs on Wednesday, households will be banned from mixing indoors, with the exception of for childcare and other forms of support. Support bubbles will remain in place, and children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated. (More at above url)
Keep in mind that the U.S. is lagging Europe by a mere 3 or 4 weeks... Belgium orders national lockdown as health system nears collapse under strain of coronavirus The country’s prime minister warned of the healthcare service becoming overwhelmed, with intensive care capacity set to be breached https://inews.co.uk/news/world/belg...lth-system-collapse-strain-coronavirus-743876
Coronavirus: England's month-long lockdown could be extended, says Michael Gove The leading Tory frontbencher says it would be "foolish" to predict what will happen with the pandemic over the next four weeks. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-could-be-extended-says-michael-gove-12120518
More details in the U.K. regarding lockdown extensions into next year... Boris Johnson's ministers expect England's coronavirus lockdown to be extended into next year https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown-england-new-year-2020-11
Areas in the U.S. are already seeing this problem... Coronavirus: Belgium's hospitals on the brink as caseloads soar Belgium will run out of hospital beds in little over a week, according to a medical expert. The country has the highest number of coronavirus infections per capita in the world and has registered another record caseload. https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-belgiums-hospitals-on-the-brink-as-caseloads-soar/a-55459225
A woman shrieking in anguish at new imposed lockdowns, about how she has no idea how she will be able to feed her 3 year old now that she has lost her job and cannot find another as everything is closed. Well done, Europe. Your "cure" is worse than your virus. Listen to the video and try not to feel for her.