Europe/Asia stockmarkets bottom here

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cutten, Jan 22, 2008.

  1. This is my first major call for 2008. The fear is palpable, everyone is too scared to buy, therefore I must go long.
     
  2. Recovery in DAX + ESTX50. European currencies coming back big time from lows of the night.
     
  3. Cutten, respect your views but would like it if you would clarify for trading a bounce or are you expecting a reversal and zoom back to old highs? ST you may be right, but I don't think the world has seen an OTC derivatives meltdown before plus property will likely take 2-3 years to work through. recession ends when you have clearing and we have not got that yet..
     
  4. ESTX50 -16.

    wow
     
  5. gangof4

    gangof4

    i agree. was very tempted to go long the HSI futures overnight- it violates my rules thought, so i resisted the urge- imagine my rules will cost me a pretty penny...

    btw, i say short term bottom- i wouldn't make the call that this the ultimate bottom for this move.
     
  6. ESTX50 -120

    Scrapping it out.
     
  7. Good call Cutten.
     
  8. gangof4

    gangof4

    and a pretty penny it was that i missed out on...

    literally spent the entire last 30 minutes of trading that night going over the risk/reward potential. even though it was overwhelmingly positive (imo), i defaulted to following my rules and, as posted, didn't take the trade.

    ended up having the best week of my futures trading career without it, but it would have been 2x if i'd have just convinced myself that this was a calculated risk worthy of a one-off rules violation. ehhh... big difference between knowing it's the right trade and actually pulling the trigger.

    overnight emotion/revenge based positions in august killed me and were the reason for my no overnight holds rule. guess it's time to refine that rule to make it only apply to emotion based stupidity; leaving the door open to calculated, non-emotional overnight positions in unusual situations like we saw that night (well, night for me, anyway)...
     
  9. the next bubble will be in European and HSI;

    HongKong has negative yield ratio(inflation adjusted) for lender after its 75bp cut followed the fed.