I saw it...I just still don't buy it, that's all. T-Life, just out of curiosity, why did you call the run up after CPI, "ridiculous"? As I was getting stopped out of longs, I kept wondering why we weren't higher. All Fed speak keeps referring to their future moves being data driven and I saw nothing in the CPI that told me the Fed was going to become more aggressive. I was obviously wrong, so please enlighten me, if you would be so kind.
Well, after CPI...we went back down to lows in anticipation the fed minutes would be bearish...as it turned out the mintues didn't say anything we didn't already know..and the whole run-up was a result of short covering by the big boys...and of course locals scrambling to get long. I was just surprized how agressive it was bought up..that was something else!!
10 years led the way down before the FOMC minutes, big upstairs local, won't name names, but he is the brother of someone that is kind of big at TT. He started selling 111-13 with his guy in the pit (about 5 minutes before the FOMC minutes) and took it down to 11, minutes came out, spike down to 06, I think he got out around 111-08 or 09, decent sized bids in that area, then rest of smaller locals covered shorts we end up a little higher on the day. Decent volatility after that number, I still think the curve flattener is a good trade. Why should CPI be any higher when goods are being imported cheaply from China and sold even cheaper at Wal-Mart? I'm not buying the inflation scares at all. At this point I would still be long the 30 year, ten year hasn't budged last 3 options expirations, and I would be short the front end of the Euros. Just my opinion. Have a nice day.
I hear you on the volume bix, however, it does seem like there is a lot more real volume trading through these days... I guess I should have specified the run up in GE was a bit ridiculous...CPI and PPI are two different numbers, yes they are related but way too many guys had bets that the CPI would come in stronger due to PPI fluctuations...this just wasn't the case as producers are still not able or willing to pass on price increases to customers...anyway, I thought the reaction was a bit much, more just short covering than anything else...in my opinion the curve flattening trend has no real end in sight if inflation remains benign and paper and customers are still 'yield starved'. So the post CPI move was just a good time to get short GE again...tough to stand in the way of this 'flattening' freight train...lol.
that little buy up after the minutes was aggressive...and short covering always tends to cause that kind of panic buying...people were selling all day after cpi ahead of the minutes and when you're already so short you don't want to sell anymore, the offers tend disappear frighteningly quick when a few buyers come around...
GEZ05 Tradestation data 2/28/05 I'm trying to figure out if these mini spikes are real or bogus. Has anyone with other data vendor seen these mini-spikes in their data yesterday? My timescale is set for PST. Thanks.
is that the floor or globex contract? if its globex, it looks wrong compared to my charts - futuresource. sorry - too busy to post 1 up - looks same but no tails
there was another thread about an error on a five year bundle yesterday. i asked our eurodollar guys (options) and they said they would see what they could find out but i havent heard anything yet. the thread also mentioned the z05 contact. i will post if i hear any thing good. jim
I heard the same thing..asked about 10 different pit guys (and girls) and everyone had heard about it but no one had seen any evidence nor had any details...