Excellent short, congrats. What has always worked for me through the years dealing with reports, the small trader is going to get screwed, meaning many more times than not, the market will first go in wrong direction to sucker the newbies and then I am waiting for price to reverse. For all timeframes I have a first target depending on the timeframe and of course back testing, depending on reason of the trade whether to add on for longer term or if swing trade, a second target will exist. Longer term has no targets, once I get to breakeven, never gets moved till I have reasons to based on weekly charts. I have found trailing stops hurts more than helps long run.
Yea I hate trailing stops, the part your talking about where the market moves for a short time in obvious direction and get the suckers in usually moves enough for me to take small profit on first lot and leave one lot in for a free trade with a reasonable stop so there is no longer any risk, and when this direction is correct the odd time I just leave the trade on For as long as possible. What this means is I have lots of break evens and small losses then a big winner or two, that's the theory I'm working on anyway and is so far not to bad in pract4
yeah, the problem with trailing stops is, everybody is keyed off the exact same number. The distance may be different, but we are all working off the same number.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3911451> You are generous to infer I was making a point. I am not qualified to make one as per my previous post citing my lack of credentials. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3911258#post3911258 The question I made was related to the richness of the Euro. I am thinking not just of any chart characteristic but also fundamentals. Does that not move the needle in having traders take positions ? I have heard two radio interviews of analysts doubting the viability of notions that the European economy is recovering in a credible, sustaining way. Longer term consideration is the quick sand Europe is on with respect to the PIIGS countries of Europe. Of course, I appreciate traders' time horizons and distinctions between positions in trades, including longer term trades and investments.
Seems like were it is at right now is the last area of resistance before it just takes off to test the highs. An up channel like this after coming off the highs makes me have a bearish bias. I have tried to jump the gun 2 times and got cut. 3rd time maybe is the charm getting short at the top of the channel and will add to it on a break below it and if everything goes well add again below the big trend line. This could kick 2014 off with a BOOM!! Kind of like shorting the pound at the start of this year. I'm wrong if it closes and stays above the short term channel.
I'm staying away from it for now, it's too risky, it went into a short term sell on my 1 min charts then went nuts and into a buy, It's far to high to sustain that rally