I'd use very tight stops if I were you. In fact, I would use stops so tight that those would be below my target price.
It sure bounced hard and fast off of .6000 the first time around. I think everyone and their Mother were waiting with their fingers on the short button.
If that's true, they sure covered all those shorts pretty fast too. Right now 1.6 is here to stay. There is simply no convincing price action to the contrary. Definitely not the gigantic fall that everybody expects. I guess we'll see in a couple of days, but my guess is on to the next barrier around 1.65, with or without a major retrace.
I hope it does hit 1.65. I hope it goes beyond. The pain this is causing some of the Euro countries will be interesting to watch, and at the end of the day they'll have the ECB to thank for all that sabre rattling Personally, I'll be playing other more rational pairs.
We haven't seen significant pain in the EZ yet. I would've guessed that anything above 1.5 would be cause enough for an old fashioned European revolution, but this silence is just scary. In fact, this is the same silence as in the US about the falling dollar. I would have guessed that the 1.5 would've been cause enough for an old fashioned American trade embargo/subsidization/penalty levies triangle. But nothing. I just can't imagine at this point what price level will be 'too much'. The euro has rallied to the point where even a fall back to the 1.2 levels would only be a 50% fibo retrace. Does anyone remember when we had a significant retrace on the monthly? 2005! Markets go up, euro goes up. Markets go down, euro goes up. Kinda funny. Ivanovich, what do you mean by more rational pairs? Please don't say yen.
Well wherever it is in June I'm selling and going on holiday........to the US! At $1.60 per euro it's about the cheapest place The tourist industry in Europe is going to be dead this summer! What are you going to trade Ivan, Aud and Nzd against Asia?
Trying to pick the top is suicide. The higher probability trade is to wait for a bearish signal (pattern) on the daily/weekly charts first. Right now this chart is about as bullish as they come. A low risk entry with a target around 1.64 area is the way to go until the charts say otherwise.
At the moment, I'm enjoying playing the USD/CAD range, as well as the EUR/AUD cross. Also like the AUD/CAD for a long towards parity eventually. Orange, I hear it when you say you don't see any pain in the EZ. Then I go and read about 40 articles saying otherwise. *shrug* The numbers coming out of the EZ aren't anything to cheer about. We also hear (albeit quietly) about banks that are being bailed out in Germany or in the Netherlands, but the market is so fixated on the US situation, it doesn't care, because the ECB is ranting about inflation. Eventually it's all going to come to a head. It may be one month, it may be one year. Who knows? But to say EUR/USD is fair value at 1.60 is...well, I can think of many words. None of them nice.