Friday marked the bottom. All retail shorters went short last Friday, as the chart look like it's freefalling. However they will all get crushed in the very unexpected short squeeze. They won't believe their eyes.
Problem with currencies versus indexes are they stand alone. When they run... they run deep with no other components to offer resistance or pull it back. Past 6 months 1.51 >>> 1.19 = 22% drop without any significant retracement. Future Options sentiment looks bleak for any type of significant recovery. 1.15 puts are fetching 2x the premiums of the 1.25 calls. Looks like we are on target to breach 1.12 by July 9th.
Where do you see the Euro rising to in the event of a short squeeze? I don't see it rising much more than 200-250 pips on a short squeeze. On the other hand, there's this rumor (which, if true, would bring parity rather quickly): http://yrah53.wordpress.com/2010/06/06/job-like/ Fifth paragraph: "As a side note, there are reports from DER SPIEGEL,the well-regarded German periodical, that the German Constitutional Court is going to BAR Berlinâs participation in the â¬750 billion plan for the financial support of the profligate PIIGS. This is a decision that will rock the entire EU as it would provide Germany with an exit from the ill-conceived bailout, which will ultimately be nothing more than a transfer payment from Germany to the PIIGS. Just when you think you are out of this morass they keep dragging us back in ⦠and so it goes."
Post below is from June 4th (this thread), a cent or so from euro's low for some years. Anyone else on this bandwagon and if so why?