Discussion in 'Forex' started by Pabst, Feb 8, 2004.
Any consensus on whether the Dollar will come out bid to-morrow night?
It would have been more bearish for euro had the statement actually specified (however vaguely) that certain regions were "out of line" or "disproportionate" in terms of their recent moves, yet the reference to "excess volatility" seems more a thin-blanket warning on future (read:expected) "volatility" (aka dollar weakness) rather than a condemnation of current rates of exchange. So if the euro gaps down hard, I'd be willing to bet that the euroministers post-meeting stance of "we got exactly what we wanted" is a bluff the market will eventually call. Who knows, most definitely not me *shrug*
This originated with the Stephan Evans of the BBC. I came across it here.
There is a possibility this non-event will be hijacked by political opponents and twisted beyond recognition, and this seems like a pretty good distillation of the blather.
maybe the fishing was good...
Trade of the year. Sell EurYen. Yen is going to be sub-104 vs. $ soon. Eur will probably hold relatively steady. Any pop in $/Yen, sold to you!
No idea, but by the time you can trade it you will already know the answer.
I am biased, but personally I think it is a fairly nondescript statement and reckon the market will test the G7 resolve in the not too distant future.
I am reading this weekend .... this is like asking people who will win the Kentucky Derby !
bank of ny - The G-7 may not permit a one-way sell-off in the dollar
Deutsche Bank - The dollar may strengthen to as much as $1.20 in the next few weeks
Citigroup - the euro may trade between $1.23 and $1.27 in coming days.
UBS - The market will be careful about taking the dollar through $1.30
Commonwealth Bank of Australia -
The dollar will bounce in the first half of the week as it seems the G-7 are a little bit uncomfortable with the pace of the decline,
BNP Paribas -
There may be a slight dip in euro-dollar, but it will be short-lived
So, you are short both euryen and $/yen?
Trade of today (Monday):
Against Europe's common currency, the dollar traded at about $1.2581 at 8:10 a.m. in Wellington, from $1.2706 in New York late on Friday
Decent gap down -- you trading spot or futures pabst?
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