Sorry. I can't help with this one. Maybe someone else can. What I do see is a lot of false breakouts at key levels where stops reside. In fact, it is likely a profitable strategy on its own.
I reversed my position and am now short at 1.2198. My target is open, but first consideration is somewhere around the 1.2111 area. If this gives way, then somewhere around the 1.1984 area. I will be quick to exit if things head up first. Good luck everyone. DRT
I covered at 1.2173 for a small profit. There is no follow thru here on MLK day and I am seeing signs of a possible surge up. I think I will wait for a better entry. Have a good holiday, if things change significantly I will be back. DRT
I got short at the end of today at 1.2160. Full position and my target is around 1.1894. I also got long USDCAD but that is another discussion. May the force be with me. I am giving the EURO FX trade some room, if we push through the topside I think we will see a false breakout. Good trading. DRT
I know this post is going to get a few laughs, but just for conversation I wanted to give a few thoughts. I see us at a major "critical mass" level right now. I think most of the world thinks the USD is headed down and the mighty EURO is headed up. Well that may be so and if that is the case I will follow her. Its January 2006 and here is my take. [*]The USD will resume its charge against the EURO and we will move down significantly in the EURUSD. [*]USDCAD is a great buy right now and will move up to at least$1.24. [*]USDJPY is a great buy right now and will move up to around $1.26 [*]Gold has hit a major reversal level and will correct down to $475 an ounce. [*]Crude will retreat to the $40's. [*]The dollar index is the sly one, I thinking up to high 90's then onto $1.05 or thereabouts. [/list=1] If I am wrong on the overall direction, then I will reverse accordingly. I am basing this all on my qualifications as one of the best fisherman in our area. Hope everyone has a nice 2006!! DRT
I can see many reasons to short the dollar in 2006 but I fear that everyone is already short of it again and this makes me very nervous. Trade the breakout of 1.20 to 1.22. This range has held for so long the breakout could be explosive.
I agree with you. There is a huge H&S pattern on the weekly chart and I am going to wait for the end of month now to see what will happen. Fast breakout of 1.2200/50 will mean a correction to 1.2400/2450. I also wonder what will be the main catalyst of trends in 2006 year.
How/when will you know you are wrong, as opposed to getting a great entry point to exploit your predictions?
If I am wrong, there will be a breakout higher and then a pullback to the current highs will occur. If EC finds support here, and moves up then I am out. I will only take so much pain. I feel like we are at a significant level that will set the stage for this year. Just look at the USDCAD action over the last couple trading days, lot of pent up mouse clicking going on with everybody. The predictions are really just for fun. I will trade whatever comes. If the move down does begin, I will not stay in it to the end. I will exit and re-enter at levels that I feel are appropriate. There you go......clear as mud.
I see the H&S, but didn't the neckline fail? Maybe I am looking at it sideways or something? Actually, I see a big divergence on the weekly which points to the topside. This is troublesome for me, but I don't trade based on indicators.