No one is angry here. The well-being of the OP and other posters on this thread depends to some extent on the volume of the products that we provide significant liquidity for. This is a legitimate discussion for locals trading fixed income futures. You (being a retail forex trader) have no place here and so have apparently mistaken the tone of this thread.
So let's say youre working an order 100 points out of the market and the next blip that occurs moves 200 points out of the market. Your point is that the market will always revert to it's previous level after a move like this that has no fundamental reason. Still, it's quite nervewracking when youre in the midst of the move and have no idea how low/high we're gonna go past your fill. You just have to have confidence in the full reversion I guess.
I think it's really pathetic that once you voice disapproval of the way the markets have been allowed to evolve you are branded an "old timer" or "dinosaur",if you don't trade fixed income siki13 then piss off and get involved elsewhere,this is a discussion for people involved in these products and who have a vested interest in them,earlier on there was another prick who trades dax who got busy when really, like you he didn't have the first clue about what he was talking about.
Back to real dicussion. These trades always have to stand in my opinion,personally I think that is the sign of a disorderly market,it doesn't help with liquidity around the market prices all it does it create liquidity 50-100 ticks away which never get traded to. It's part of life with electronic trading and will happen more and more as liquidity/volume dries up,perhaps 200 tick spikes could be seen next year....who knows.
THE FULL REVERSION. pretty much. ive traded electronically since the beginning and during that time whether there have been rate cuts, rate hikes, 9/11 , tube explosions, geo political events, central bank talk etc etc any moves on the outrights have never been more than about 50 to 75 full ticks up or down. now in not saying there is a time when they wont. for example un announced fed rate hike of 100 basis points etc but im only going on whats happened previously.
Just back from London ,UK Was talking to a old buddy, and he says that the amounts of guys scalping Bund futures in the past year or so , had dropped of amazingly. Not many locals of the arcade trading floors are even trading anymore he stated, is this the case?Or have they migrated to different markets- or possibly trade with a larger timeframe in view? Thanks
a mixture of both. i know certainly of at least 2 resaonable size arcade companies gone to the wall this year. mostly on the basis of margin required to trade and obviously their traders cant make money. individual traders still about in smaller size. i dont think there is a market particularly friendly that everybody is trading and making money at. just trade what you know and better with smaller size seems to be the answer. i think the real problem for fixed income trading next year and pretty much any trading is that the big boys, banks and hedgies will not be playing. that amounts to edge gone whichever way you look at it. the banks are in trouble and will probably be nationalised further in 2009. along with zero rates the curve and interest rate strips could be quite for a long while. japan style trading here we come.
The federal reserve will print money and buy the bonds from the treasury. It is called quantative easing, the politically correct term for printing money.