Well, I mean they could announce that Greece is receiving the bailout. It seems to me that would somewhat "calm" investors in the near term which means the euro should go back up when they announce that. Then of course, we could have the same situation again. Bonds will start to go back down again after going up until the crisis point hits, which will happen I don't know when...
Clambill, this Greek bailout is a Pandora's Box full of very bad consequences - most of which have not been accounted for in the marketplace yet. Here's one possible outcome: http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/The-...hand-could-get-Germany-kicked-out-of-the-Euro I don't follow TA on the Euro, but it sounds like even the technicals have turned fairly bearish: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63M1AV20100423?type=usDollarRpt So if you're long Euro, you're going against both the technicals and the fundamentals. I've done that before. It didn't work for me.
Oh, I'm not implying I wanted to go long. I'm just saying the EU is probably going to continue to try to find ways to fight the negative effects at least in the short term. As far as TA goes in the short term, on a daily chart of the EUR/USD, I'm seeing what almost appears to be a triple bottom and a long shadow on the last candlestick. (The fact that the last low is lower than the last two could actually be worse than a perfect triple bottom. This would imply more people have been shaken out which would imply an even more bullish impact in the short term). This would imply a possible short term bottom meaning we could possibly see prices shooting up and hitting the last highs at around 1.3675 before going back down again. I know it would suck for short sellers to see prices shoot up again. But the reason why I'm saying there's a triple bottom and long shadow is because long shadows and triple and quadruple tops and bottoms I've seen in Forex always seem to stop the trend at least in the short term.
Interesting read on it. I assume that the two critical levels would then be 1.36 (above would be bullish) and 1.3275 (below would be bearish)? Also, interesting interpretation of the bottoms. The last two bottoms formed based on external news of a Greek bailout. I can't remember the the reason for the first one; I'd have to dig through previous news. Thanks for the perspective; I'll chew on it a bit.
I will take notice when it hits the 1.36 alert....until then I will continue to sleep well As for opinions...none. Pass me the ouzo... NiN
Well, could be an inverse H&S on hourly chart that has already played out, or is nearly played out. With all the overhead resistance, the path of least resistance is still down.
If it breaks out to the downside, yeah, I can see it going down further. By the time it would hit 1.36, you'd have time to re-assess the situation. EDIT, I'd have to add though that if it does break out to the downside and some sort of positive news does come out, then a lot of shorts would be caught with their pants down so to speak so it could lead to a quick short squeeze.
I don't know if I'd call it a short squeeze; more of a short covering rally. That'd be the way that I would read the last two bounces off of the bottom - short covering rallies. I had expected some short covering yesterday (there was/still is a lot of profits on the table) and the formal Greek request seems to have increased expected short covering. At this point, my attention is starting to shift from Greece to the rest of the PIIGS and how they will react to this. Their spreads started to blow out again this last week. If that trend continues, they will also be going to the EMU with hat in hand looking for a bailout. An article that touches on the subject: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article7107208.ece Here is a Reuters article on headlines across Europe on the subject; interesting read: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63N07820100424 There are a lot of possible outcomes, but only one outcome that I would consider positive for the Euro. If that occurs, I will cover immediately and consider going long.
I wanted to ask a question to the fundamentalists. When they say by the time you hear the news it's already too late, how do you time that? Do you try to get in way before the news is really bad (or good)? I remember back in 1998 when they spoke about the Asian Crisis for 6 months before it finally had an impact on the US stock market. And the first bit of bad news for the last US recession actually started coming out in August of 2007. The S&P 500 ended up making a double top on the daily chart before finally diving. How do you decide just using fundamentals when you're going to short? And how long you want to stay in then exit then trade?