Hmm...who was it that called the 25bps hike only while the market was screaming half a point? Let me think for a minute...
Although there was a challenge to the 2837 level near the end of the day. It held. I am still short for now from 2925. DRT
Nice downmove on the EURUSD. Its at the 100EMA level on the H4 timeframe. As always remember that 50 (not on H4 though)/100/200 EMA levels can act as significant S&R levels. This is due to market participants (particularly trend followers) focusing on these levels to initiate positions. I covered my shorts with nice profits (entry at 1.2900 with exit at 1.2822. stop was on the upside of the S&R level at 1.2932). I am going to wait for break of the 100EMA and the trendline on the EURUSD H4 timeframe before initiating positions. Nice job on the short as well DRT.
Ivan, Did you see the metrics summary from Jack Crooks today. This was what I was trying to say, but he did it in a much better way. Not sure if it will hold up, but when you remove all the emotion this is what it boils down to. DRT
Same to you. Nice trade. Right now I am holding my short. 1.2750 is the key value area for the EURUSD. Up until this weekend, I had been planning on taking a long on a spike down in front of this area which may happen today. We would then push on up to very high levels. I changed my plan this weekend after further high level consderation. I am in my trade with a nice profit and if the bounce gains momentum I will cover. What I really want to see is this 2750 area give way and a settle below. My target is now much lower. It's a toss up in my opinion. If the bounce does occur then I will get long up above 2837 or above somewhere. Even riskier is my long position on the USDJPY. I use this as a barometer for change. I see signs of this pair heading back up to 120 instead of the lower levels I think most are targeting. If this scenario begins to play out, I will feel much more comfortable with some modest dollar strength. The markets always tend to surprise us don't they. We are all quick to forget when emotions take over. Good trade on the short. DRT
I hope its okay to do this. I thought is was very interesting and would help so if I am not supposed to do this, I apologize. This the free report that he sends not the subscription service. DRT
It's ok because he posts them on the net at blackswantrading.com So I'm sure he doesn't care. But I read the report (am at work now). Nothing there is surprising and if you follow my comments back a few months in this thread, I have been sticking to this theme for a while.
Well the 2837 level held last night. We are working the 2777 area as of 11:00 today. This is about where I had planned on getting long and it sure looks like it wants to explode out of here. I am staying short with a move back above 2800 convincing me to close up. If we somehow get thru the 2750 value area, then a move down from value, my short will have more of chance to make some serious profit I think. Still short from 2925. DRT