Every day i start liking forex better and better. Starting to get a feel for it. Been doing very well on my demo account just playing chart patterns that are very recognizable. Figured I'd continue my thing of posting a screen shot every night.
Here's a good one..... 15:44 EUR/USD: Reports of Heavy Two-Way Flows at Lows] Boston, May 26. Dealers note talk of very heavy two-way flows close to the lows of the day. One account is said to have sold up to a yard of EUR/USD around 1.2705 and was filled in by a North Asian central bank and buy the supra-national name that was spotted buying earlier in the 1.2730 area. Heavy buying of EUR/CHF is helping keep the EUR/USD side of the trade very well bid at the moment. Offers are seen toward 1.2745 but dealers suspect a big squeeze will be seen if 1.2765 is overcome on the topside.
I am going to exit here at 1.2987. Looks like we should head up but I see some significant resistance that has me wondering and it is best to watch a while for me. Profit of 147 points. I still see a better place to be long around 1.25 area but I not sure we will ever get there in my lifetime. Good trading DRT
I can't really explain it from a normal perspective that would help anyone else, but from my methodolgy..... I see the pair testing 1.27 again at a minimum. I follow price distribution on the monthly and weekly level and there is a lot of unresolved zones down below. The distribution curve favors resolution before the pair can move up in my opinion. Today the dollar index hit a key level for me which indicates a fairly good move up. The USDJPY is also still in its range and my studies show this pair moving to near 114 at a minimum (maybe 115) and I think we will see some massive short coverage start to occur and dollar buying before this pair ultimately moves much lower. If we get a close today in the 1.2880's (not to likely), we will back inside the triangle where we have been rangebound. Not very impressive follow thru after the NY boys got into it today in my opinion. I think there were a lot of sales at the top today. Etc, etc, etc. Clear as mud, but I am loaded up short. DRT
I found the price action yesterday and particularly today to be interesting. All the movement came in one large move up within one hourly candle and I think the majority of it came in about 20 minutes. There was no continuation of the move yesterday or today. Volume on the CME for FX was above average, but not particularly high for such an "apparent" USD bearish report. I realize the move up was large, but generally the other time frame buyers would tend to react. One thing is for sure, price held the high level, built value and did not move down. About 55% of the days volume occurred near the top today. This leads me to believe that buyers are already in to a high degree. Maybe good traders are beginning to sell this leg up. This is always the first sign that a change is near. Obviously we could use a correction but "when" is the key question. I think value is way out of whack at this point and I suspect smart traders will be patient and wait for a better entry in the 2525 -2545 area for instance. I am short as stated above for a variety of reasons, and I will get out quickly if necessary as I think there is plenty of emotional gas left in this move that will send me running for cover. It seems like the consensus view has written off the dollar and that is a sure sign of a good time to exit. The dollar obviously has some structural issues, but this is not a revelation in my opinion. I think rate hikes are still forthcoming. I am surprised everyone has discounted this so heavily. I just wanted to bring it up. At least, this is what I observed. I am sure there are lots of other valid opinions as to why we should head on up and I welcome the views. Where has everyone gone? Is everyone counting their riches? I had a decent month in May, but it was brutal. I have been through every emotion known to traderdom lately. Good trading everyone. DRT
I am tempted to hold it until 1.20. Nah, couldn't happen could it. Who was the Gann guy anyway? Hell, I do not even know how to intepret any of his stuff. But this chart shows it at the 1X1 line. First a test, then a pullback where we closed on Friday. DRT
downrivertrader: Here's some weekend thought, are there more stops located at 13000 right now or 12700 after another failed attempt at 13000? Or better yet take a look at cable/$, was it ready to fall out of bed last Friday, Monday, and again yesterday or after today's move will we see 19000 next week?