Oanda... that's what I thought at first, looking at your chart, but dismissed the notion out of hand, because there was nothing like that on my charts at that time. Across different account owners, no less, as well as on two other platforms. And I see Ivanovich has nothing either on his charts. Hmm... Kastro, I hate to break it to you, man, but it looks like the Big O has it in for you, big time. Or not... was this your real or demo account chart? http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=17;t=002324
I sincerely hope you are kidding for your own sake. Jesse Livermore's book mentions: "never try to catch a falling dagger" (wait until it sits firmly in the ground) The way I interpret it is that this is one of those dreaded "short squeeze's" and no-one knows how high they can spike. It did look for a while like it was a standard double top and lots started to short before the market actually indicated it. When I saw the market slowly drifting upwards I went long and loaded the boat - I figured it was only a matter of time before the inevitable stops would be hit. And hit they did ! Now I am sitting on the sideline until the next part of the play becomes clear and I know what the likelyhood of the outcome will be. I am retired from the medical profession but we had an expresion: "In dubio - abstine" (When in doubt do not do anything) Obviously you were not around when the Japanese goverment decided to "punish" the currency speculators and it made in 36 hours something of a 15% move (forget the actual numbers but it was in that ball park) It taught me a lesson I'll never forget. I strongly feel currencies are running to a different tune than indexes and stocks. I do not want to be an alarmist but.... coming monday there MAY be blood in the street and dickens to pay. I am saying this because I wonder if the reputed Asian currency remark ( mentioned earlier in this thread ) was an attempt by Bernanke at being screwd or just plain stupidity. (I never follow the actual news, the charts will tell me the long term stuff, if it is important news then I may hedge or stand aside, like now with Bernanke, he is still relatively unknown) If this remark is true then: Doesn't he realise that the USD is the default reserve currency in these countries? Now with this spike in the Eur-USD some in those countries may well decide to convert their holdings in Euro's, particularly when they have the weekend to think about it. And then same applies for those who trade on a weekly bar. And do not forget manufacturing / export / import: they may suddenly decide to "hedge". And if the remark has pissed off some ( Asian ? or other? ) government then it may just be the proverbial drop that makes the bucket overflow and tip that country towards converting their reserves (like Sweden?) (In Asia it is still a pretty normal thought process of "you scratch my back and I scratch your's" If you piss them off then why would they want to stick with you? They'll never forget!) I am left wondering: is this the drop in the bucket that will start the inevitable chain reaction towards panic in the markets? One thing is for sure: it will be an interesting opening next week and I am glad to be flat. (I did think about staying long but too much can happen over the weekend) vital analitics
No, I am not kidding. But if I get stopped out, I get stopped out. It has happened before, and will happen again. I believe last week was a textbook example of an end of month run up. Every month these things try to occur, and the market tries to use end of month liquidity to make a run on something. The G7 comments, the 3 day holiday this weekend, and the ongoing diversification stories make the perfect storm, and it worked well this month. It also worked well in March on sell offs in the AUD and NZD, which reversed themselves on April 1. If you look back and EOM periods, you'll see similar kinds of runs on various pairs. Lots of times it gets stalled, but this time it had lots of steam. The ECB isn't going to be able to take another 3 cent or more run up on the Euro this week. They simply cannot tolerate a two week 8-9 cent rise.
Ahhh....that youthfull inexperience and optimism that ones stop will get filled near to where the stop is. Wait until there is a real panic and your stop may not get filled until far away, or not at all. Did you see the spike on Kastor's dummy account? Well that is what will happen if there is a real panic and there is no-one who will take the other side of your stop. Many times you'll dodge the bullet but it takes only one time to wipe you out. There is the old expression: take care of your loosers, the winners take care of themselves. vital analitics
you know what, you can preach about how people should trade all the time but everyone knows these already. What really matters is real life execution and making money. What do you suggest ivanovich do? From the sound of your post, you're almost sayin you're never wrong and that you know everything when it comes to trading. Give the people here some credit and don't think you know more than anyone does because they're short the Euro and right now. What matters is, you get stopped out or protect your losses. For all you know, a 10% move against him on the euro could very well be just a 5% hit on the account value. You don't know that.
If you don't know what to do then you should not be trading. (because you are still a newbie) vital analytics
Yes, we're all newbies, and none of us have any idea about trading. Why not take your 57 posts and find another home? Us newbies are happy here. Just because we don't see it your way does not make us inexperienced. I've been trading now for several years, and I've yet to have a stop not filled. So buzz off, or contribute to the thread in a constructive manner.
The remark was directed to polpolik, not to you. I am not here to teach you anything, all I gave was a friendly warning that the market is getting in a state one has to watch their backs. And that is enough of a positive contribution. (PS Your reaction tells me a lot too.) You can take it or leave it, it is all the same to me. vital analitics