The Fed will raise to 5% and the ECB won't do anything in May. that's my vote. As for misunderstanding the G7, how dumb can people be? The statement specifically said "Asian currencies must bear the brunt of an imbalance adjustment". Since when was the Euro Zone in Asia?
This is exactly why news should be avoided and not analyzed. Look at the chart--it will tell you everything you need to know. Very long term fundamentals can be considered, but week to week month to month--forget it.
These aren't long term fundamentals you are looking at --Most of them are day to day and week to week. Just trade technicals --forget about news.When the market is ready to turn, technicals will give you the info you need. Always trade technicals --they hold the fundamentals within them and the human sentiment factor as well.
I'm sorry, but I don't agree. You can trade technical intraday movements - resistance and supports, fibos, etc. But at the end of the week when you see a 500 pip rise, that's not technical. That's a change in the fundamental perception on where things are going in the long term. And that's what I'm looking at here. Sure, I've referred to strong data releases, etc. Those are all short term. But together, over a period of time, they generate a picture of the future. And that, as far as the Euro goes, is being ignored here. And it's not technical movement, it's emotional. Technicals don't hold market sentiment. They are calculations and math. Statistics.
Technicals most certainly do carry market sentiment! That is what they are! --And they are much more powerful the longer the term, like daily and above, not the shorter the term.
No argument there. What would motivate a trade is a completely different discussion. I'm just speculating what short-term events might eventually turn the herd around. I don't plan to stand in front of the stampede and try present my reasons why I think they may be headed in the wrong direction.
I present my reasons I think they are headed in the wrong direction, but I certainly do not take a stand in front of the stampede - which is what I've been saying this whole time. I was under the impression this was a discussion. If I am wrong, I will refrain from future like postings. As for the discussion on technicals, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because I cannot disagree any stronger.
Let me preface by saying that I posted AFTER your post -- not IN RESPONSE TO your post. In fact, I didn't even see your post before I submitted my own. Yes, you've made that very clear. I was referring to my own approach here, which is the same as yours. I certainly hope that you do NOT refrain from posting, as I consider your posts to be among the best on the thread. Just so we're not talking past each other, I believe you are saying that the market is reacting emotionally and ignoring the fundamentals. I absolutely agree. I was agreeing with Buy1Sell2 that it made sense (for me) to wait until the technicals tell me when to go short before I enter a short trade. Perhaps you do the same, or perhaps, with your longer term trading horizon, you use a different methodology. Judging from your past posts, it seems likely to me that you have a better "feel" for the market than most, so you may be attuned to different things than I am. I just do what works for me. As for the question of whether this move up is technical or emotional -- that sounds like semantics to me. There are obviously elements of both in the recent runup.