If we make it, I am going to cover my short positon at .2261. Might be wise to take half off around .2285. DRT
Just gone long at 1.23 Feel a drop of 70pips from the high today is fair enough for a pull back. I think 1.2415 would have to be hit sooner or later. I think a range of 1.228-1.237 might develop for a while though.
"EUR/USD has overcome overnight highs at 1.2374 and shot up to 1.2386 as concerns over the impact of potential sanctions on Iran filter through to weaken the USD. Any freezing of Iranian assets in the US could trigger concerns among Mid-East oil producers that they too could be swept up by sanctions at some point in the future. Options-related selling is rumored on rallies with Asian names said to be protecting 1.2400 barriers. Dealers are also on guard for any signs of concern from the ECB over the strong EUR. The higher EUR/USD goes, the lower the odds for aggressive tightening from the ECB. EUR/USD trades at 1.2369. Bids are seen at 1.2330 on dips." I point out the last few sentences as exhibit A. Also why I'm avoiding this pair and it's irrational behavior. If you're going to short the dollar, there are plenty of pairs out there that make more sense. That'll be my last warning on the subject, as I doubt you want to hear anymore
Not sure how much edification that will be. In any case, let me do that once the positions have been closed. Call me superstitious, when it comes to publicizing my still open profitable trades in detail. (Open unprofitable trades -- no problem there... using reverse psychology on those, hah.)
Closed long at 1.2384 for 84 pips. Will go long again closer to 1.23. I could be wrong but a lot of crosses are approaching upper/lower 2% ma bands, particularly GBP and CHF, against the dollar. Therefore, after massive weekly gains, you've got to question how much more there is to come this week. I'd look to sell higher, or buy lower in coming sessions.
Hi late apex Indeed... When the time is right, would you mind saying a few words about the raison d'etre (statistical, technical, fundamental, or otherwise) behind your GBP/USD trade, in particular? Thanks in advance!
On the GBP/USD front. The economic backdrop on this cross is not great; tepid to say the least. Inflation and houseprices are pretty flat, and I cant see rates going up for a long time. I think the only thing holding this up is M&A activity in the UK. Once, bids for certain companies are out the way there are no more buyers of billions of pounds worth of sterling. Also, general dollar weakness has caused GBP/USD to track higher. The 2% MA band comes in at 1.7945, and 1.2645 on the USD/CHF. So, with a 600 pip weekly rally behind it, the risk/reward at these levels is good for a short I think the 1.7750 or 1.7630 levels are achievable. Over 1.8030, all bets are off. To get there though 1.25 would have to be tripped on Eur/USD. Crazy times at the moment though.