There was a huge bearish divergence between price and RSI on hourly futures charts that preced the initial sell off. this is why I contend that news is not needed--only charts are.
Buysell1, You are correct. I saw that bearish divergence last nite as well. It looked pretty strong. I sold 2 ECM06 at 1.2348 last nite. before I went to sleep placing my stop at 1.2404. Looks like it worked out well for me. I will continue to stay short for a nice long ride down. I expect >100 pips profit per contract between today and tomorrow. The news coming out now is very bearish for the Euro.
Quote from spersky: Buysell1, You are correct. I saw that bearish divergence last nite as well. It looked pretty strong. I sold 2 ECM06 at 1.2348 last nite. before I went to sleep placing my stop at 1.2404. Looks like it worked out well for me. I will continue to stay short for a nice long ride down. I expect >100 pips profit per contract between today and tomorrow. The news coming out now is very bearish for the Euro. Currency markets feature the most powerful divergences of any market. I'm glad you had success with it!! Sorry guys, didn't mean to get in on a cash thread with the futures.
Guess what? There was a huge MACD bear divergence on hourlies on spot gold charts from March 31st to April 5th. And gold broke out to new highs today. AND BTW, I posted about the bear divergence as well... we all saw it. Millions of eyeballs saw it.
I don't follow gold. It's been my experience that the indicators are unreliable in gold. They are most reliable in currency futures which have good volume throughout the evening session to keep the indicators on their path. Now I would say that there were also a lot of traders who had no clue about the divergence otherwise they wouldn't have been long or been indecisive about direction. All we can do is work probabilities--Even shorting gold with a close stop on the divergence wouldn't have been terrible if gold broke to new highs.
Mon amis, In my humble opinion, all Monsieur Trichet did was create a buying opportunity. I find it hard to believe a man in his position would provide comment to many of the questions that he did. We should all sell the damn Euro based on his incompetence. He absolutely must have other motives. In any case, keep an eye on things today. Watch to see how the day closes. Lots of volume and if we close in the middle of the range, that should tell you that there was a lot of buying a "perceived" bargain prices by the market movers. That's my guess and I was a buyer. Good luck DRT
Just re-shorted this at 1.2230. A bit brave ahead of payrolls, but I dont think they will be that bad, and I think the euro momentum has taken a big hit today. Probably some stale longs still outthere.
Not only did the ECB leave it unchanged, but they dampened expectations of a May hike. That´s why the market went all sour. If tomorrow´s NFP is above 200k, look for a full reversal.