Thank God I don't have a position. This is a baseless upmove. (yet again). The market is so keen on focusing on an ECB hike in May. So what? The Fed is calling for 5.00 in May, and potentially 5.25 on from there. Mid-East diversification worries? Abu dhabi and Oman just said they favor high balances of USD securities and dismissed any indication of moving to more Euros. Twin deficits? Not that old story, is it? Make no mistake. I'm not a dollar bull. I play the trend when it makes sense. But this move - no idea what it's doing. Pushing the Euro up past 1.23 range decreases the chance of a hike as no one would be more unhappy about a higher EUR than the ECB. Perhaps this is a shakeout of spec shorts. I don't know.
Is it just me, or is anyone else here suprised that we havent hit 1.15 or lower by now? I guess there is still some room on the monthly chart, but that daily chart sure doesn't look too favorable to me. Kinda worrisome.
Perhaps the USD has begun selling off in recognition of a War brewing with Iran. Note USD only really began selling off in earnest as the Iraq war got underway. I'm not saying it is (yet), but only that Iran tension is the most likely driver behind any sustained USD selloff we might get at this point.
Anything is possible, though the Iran issue is old news. No, it's talk of a Fed pause (which circulates every three weeks now) among talk of an ECB hike (also a monthly circulation). And more talk about reserve diversification (a Euro Bull fav). Throw in a new rumor about China announcing a "trimming" to their USD assets (riiiight. If they were going to do it, they certainly wouldn't announce it and damage the rest of their massive owned debt). It's the usual. Silly season. I know I should buy into it and join the herd, but I can't. I can't do it when it's based on assinine fundamentals. I'll sit the sideline and watch the stomping from the cheap seats.
Ivan, When you got the answers to "why", the game would be over. "If you don't know who the sucker is, it is you" - Warren Buffett With today euro move I'm the sucker, 'cause I had the chance to go long @ 1.2120 (nice risk/reward) but I didn't, I just slept it.
PPI new highs. Euroland unemployment down to 8.2% Strengthens argument for THURSDAY'S RATE HIKE. GO TRICHET *does a somersault* And btw, breakout of symmetrical triangle on dailies.
First, I was speaking fundamentally. But if you'd like to throw in the breakout of the triangle, I need only point you to a technical downtrend in a longer term chart. I agree, unemployment and PPI numbers were rosey. But not rosey enough to justify this kind of movement in the face of an unrelenting Fed. Again, just my opinion. And that comment about suckers from Warren Buffet is actually him stealing an old poker quote about the "mark". "If you don't know who the mark is, then the mark is you."
Lol to the first comment As for the second comment, I agree that most of the rumours are bs, especially about neutral fed etc, these rumours are almost always wrong. We'll see, maybe China's going to revalue the yuan again... remember what happened to the EUR/USD the last time before they did it on 7/21