Discussion in 'Forex' started by KrispyKreme50, Aug 21, 2009.

  1. Since this is the forex section of Elitetrader, I thought it would be useful to have a thread that is about the EUR/USD similar to the ES thread in the journals section.
  2. I'm currently looking to short EUR/USD at 1.4326. My reasoning is that 11:15-11:30 was a lower high from this morning's price action.

    Stop loss will be 1.4335 and I'm looking to take profit at 1.4300.
  3. cstfx


    I think you have some good scalps downward from the 4320 level, but it is going to be shallow. Risk aversion trade (rather lack of) is taking precedence today.

    Look for a potential market selloff later in the day as this day started off strong but is also expiration day. If this appears, would be a short on the EUR.
  4. I'm looking for a selloff too this afternoon. Options expiration days are never predictable, and there won't be much action since London is closed, but I'm hoping to pick up a few pips.
  5. 1.44 has to be tested again (at least some number close to it).

    Depending on the results the way far down or up is free (more probable failing and hard reset down).
  6. I got stopped out so I'll be looking for another setup next week. Have a great weekend!
  7. Here is where I'd be long EUR/USD if this were not Friday afternoon with less than an hour to go before US equity close.
  8. Bro, did you catch the move on the false breakdown for the head n shoulders? That was a huge candle. Look at the volume as well. :)

    Eur/usd has been bid ever since!
  9. Well, if you take a look at the last segment on the EURUSD that was closed today, I Shorted the EURUSD from 4373 as my system told me that 4373 was the optimal entry down to 4318 for 55 net pips. That would be the top line item in the pic that I posted.

    As you now know, you can't place a Stop Loss on a pair that has yet to blow-off its upside potential. When there is still a high probability for late-week movement either up or down (especially on a Friday), it is always better (if you are naked with manual trading in effect) to leave your limit and stop in manual mode. Friday, is typically a high probability Correction Day for the EURUSD and the GBPUSD. Wednesday, is typically Moving Day and Monday through Tuesday, typically sets the Directional Tone, if you know what to look for.

    IF, I were a single sided player on the EURUSD right now, I would have basically three (3) options to go naked:

    1) Right now, Enter Market Order Short for a 50 pip net.

    2) Stay out of the market right now and use Entry Orders for a Short from 4375 with a target of 4335 for 40 pips.

    3) Stay out of the market right now and use Entry Orders for a Long from 4258 with current Hold until things settle down and flush out from the blow-off down to 4258.

    Or, if you really want to spice things up a bit with some non-directional trading and IF you can use smaller targets (according to your own needs), then the EURUSD right now is in the position of having a 99% probability of not failing to pick-up at least 30 pips in either direction from its current price of 4345. The current range for the EURUSD that I see right now is between 4377 and 4258.

    This 30 pip pick-up in either direction however, does have its drawbacks, because it could take some time to deal to realize. That's the "risk" for being able to trade in either direction, whenever you want, without worry. Oh, before you try this non-directional trade, you should note that using a Stop on trades like this typically does not work, given the volatility associated with the set-up that makes it possible. So, I would not use a Stop on either non-directional trade, personally.
  10. Additions:

    I am modifying numbers 2 and 3 in my last post to include the following parameters:

    2) Modification: Add a Short from 4411 with a Hold. Manual Stop.

    3) Modification: Add a Long from 4232 with a Hold. Manual Stop.

    Again, these are additions to 2 and 3 in prior post.

    Just for clarification.
    #10     Aug 22, 2009