Does anyone trade on fundamentals anymore? it seems that everyone likes to trade on the simple fact that a line passes another on a chart and that means that the goverments monetarty & economical structure is based upon that ? What happend to reading cot reports! and such! that has done so much powerful sucess in my trading and others ? and with 15% of traders profitable quoted by the ceo of fxcm! What does this show the pubic of elliot wave patter traders and fib. that this actually works .ya right !! ha ! . i can ask my child to look at a chart and have better sucess with trades that these chart pattern trades .. soon people will realize that probablility isnt the bigest part of this unless someone convinces me otherwise. If indicators and osolators where so powerfull why arnt there billions of billionairs outhere ? scince the openings of the commodity markets back when the roughneck plad wearing farmers traded, markets didnt move because of support lines why is that a part of trading today? still banks and hedgefunds controll same as day one im just confused as to why things are now so technical ..if anything banks and hedge fund would use this technology to thier favor in falseifying price to confuse the public to reap profit ?
Does anyone think that euro will go much further than 1.30 1.31 ? with the us scared of inflation shouldnt there be a turnaround in this pair soon ?
Rising inflation, falling growth and a huge current account deficit. Seems pretty good fundamental reasons to be long euro dollar to me. The only thing that might prevent it going higher is the technicals - the very thing you are seeking to blame for its rise!
I dont know euro doesnt look very bullish today.. what about how bearish the commercial traders are on euro? commercial traiders being 138,891 contracts short on the CME?
Rising inflation is more of a reason to be long the dollar. Rising inflation will imply further rate hikes by the fed. Since all forex trading is based off of is interest rates (and rate expectations) this would cause a fall in the EUR/USD... But I agree, falling growth and the account deficits are definitely anti-dollar. But as long as there is a possibility of a rate increase, you'll see the dollar holding a little but of ground. What it does from there will depend upon future rate and growth expectations.
Hi forextiming, There's more to it than just inflation and depending upon the trading day...its a different key variable (talk of the town). These things are discussed constantly at ET but just spread out all over the forum in different threads but not all in one location as one would like to keep it more organized. Thus, yes...I think most (based upon comments by other ET members) are not just following technicals nor just inflation. Mark
Im not sure what the asian and euro markets hold hopefully not a reverse like they have been doing. but im thinking of puting in an entry at sell : 1.2887 entry ? ??? anyone think this is bad ? or is this pair possably going to have a bullish run in the asian markets ?
Personally, I think all good traders have a great deal of respect for fundamental analysis. The problem lies in the timing and most importantly the size of the stack of money needed to trade based on fundamental analysis. Do not be so quick to judge everyone here just because they trade technically. Also, I only minored in economics in college and quite honestly I do not fully understand how to interpret fundamental shifts totally. In my opinion, if you are profitable don't worry about what everyone else is doing. If you are a successful fundamental trader more power to you. I wonder why you have to ask if a certain level is a good entry point. What does your fundamental analysis of the situation suggest? And by the way, the EURO is going to at least 1.08. DRT
Technicals are simply a mathematical representation of human emotion. This human factor has not changed since the beginning of the markets.