19:44 GMT Aug 12th] EUR/USD reached 1.2485, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3480/1.1870 decline before stopping on a dime in London this morning. The buck inexplicably rallied strongly despite worse than expected US trade data with some blaming a massive trade error by a high profile hedge fund as well as reports of system problems at EBS helping exacerbate an illiquid situation. EUR/USD tumbled to 1.2385 from 1.2465 after the news before rebounding to 1.2445 late in the day. The failure to overcome 1.2485 resistance despite poor data and falling US rates has the EUR bulls somewhat on edge. Commodities continued their breathtaking rally today with the CRB setting a new record high, as did oil. The oil rally spurred jitters that the Fed may be closer to the end of its tightening cycle than anyone had figured just days ago. The contractionary impact of $67 oil is too much to ignore. It will also continue to bloat the US trade deficit keeping current account jitters top of mind. TIC data on Monday will take on added import as a result. 1.2485/1.2500 is crucial for the bulls with a shakeout seen if they are not overcome soon. --