Highly bought up condition here- if the Fed doesn't express all that the market has already priced in (and even possibly more), we could see a substantial fall. I think that the risk/reward is better to short, rather than long. We have seen a lot of upward movement to current level of 75/80- pullback in future? NYCDT
The fact that the USD is down ahead means that it will go down more after the statement. We are buying the pullback right after the statement assuming they dont raise rates now. Standard deviation day as well. Buy the pullbacks dont try to pick the top. Plus we broke the downtrend on the hourly. check it out.
took our trade at 121.13....looking to re-enter into pullbacks. fed says inflation seems to be contained....very dovish statement
can you find time to re enter the correct price you bought ? EUR never got down to 120.13 in the few minutes after FED
I think you should reffer to the Standard Deviation Day thread posted by me earlier , Looking at charts i see buying the pullbacks working out with more prifits
I risked a trade that I saw more opportunity in. The Asian session is coming in to play and I am interested in seeing if they will carry the upward movement or whether they will stall it. As I said before, with the great spike up, I saw a chance of a dip around 40-60. I am currently long, however, I will keep an eye out for a reversal back down. NYCDT
note ... take the comments with a grain of salt .... the person making the remarks is not some highly paid fx spokesperson for a bank , but a poster on yahoo .... but I thought it interesting enough to post here -two sets of political developments will tend to shape currency movements over the coming weeks.- 1) The EU will agree on a European Constitution by mid-June, ending the sense of malaise and lack of leadership that has hung over Europe since the fiasco in December - and which has infected market sentiment viz the euro. 2) The markets will price in the strategic defeat now facing the US in Iraq and the Middle East. I am afraid that the war is now irretrievably lost, with instability spreading beyond Iraq. As the sheer enormity of this failure sinks in, the dollar will suffer some strain. I therefore believe that global politics will start to reassert itself as a fundamental driving force in the currency markets, ending the recent dollar rally.
From a technical point it still looks good for a resumption of the dollar fall to. From my weekly chart I posted here http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=476489 price does seem to be bouncing off of the trend line and previous highs and 50SMA, chart is missing some of the latest couple of weeks, although fridays data made a good dollar rally, yet to be seen if it will continue next week. The days prior to Friday Eur was making movements up. I remember back in last Junish-Augustish people thinking the dollar had finally bottomed, and look where it went after that! I dont trade weekly charts, but would not suprise me if the dollar did fall more here on out.