With the US economy now showing signs of strength, and the market seeing a rate increase from the FOMC sooner rather than later. The FX market will now start to look at Europe for signs of a recovery. This weeks data will be HUGE. If German industrial production and PMI come out worse than expected many traders will look for a cut by the ECB. 1.2050 in the EUR/USD is a big spot, any break should see at test of the 1.1940 area. No reason to be long the EUR as fundamentals and technicals all have turned very negative. Donât chase it but look for a downward channel to for on the hourly for the whole week. Sell the strength.
Something that might hold down the Euro... ECB in crisis as rate cut blocked by revolt http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...d=242&sSheet=/portal/2004/04/05/ixportal.html
1.5000!!! Blackguard, how long is your 'long-term expectation'? 1 month? 6 months? a year? A division within ECB, an echoing euphoria of payrolls, all point to a weaker euro and a generally stronger buck this week, and possibly next.