EUR/USD higher to go?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ilia7, Mar 28, 2004.

  1. Ilia7


    Hi everyone I am new to this forum, so please don't scream at me if this topic was discussed in an earlier thread.:(

    Has anyone got any opinions about the sharp fall of the dollar over the months, and the great increase in the EUR/USD. I know that the main point of the EUR was to kill the dollar but any opinions would be greatly appreciated.

    Would this still be a great time to go short against the dollar, go long in the EUR/USD. Considering the US is causing inflation by printing their money. The dollar has droped a lot will it still drop.


    Ilia:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :eek: :confused: :confused: :(
  2. cable


    Over the long-term, the US Dollar will approach its natural value of Zero as America becomes a banana republic due to its massive world-crushing debt and irresponsible short-term thinking economic strategies. But before that? Sorry, no idea. "What stage of the decline are we currently in" is the big question...
  3. "Hi everyone I am new to this forum, so please don't scream at me."


    haha, just kidding.

    Welcome to ET!

    Unfortunately, I have the same general consensus outline by Cable, i.e. USA = future Mexico.

    Scalp long EUR/USD and be sure to use the 50/50/30/1-2MM system and you should be fine.

    Have you traded forex long?

  4. Here are some short term fundemental catalysts that I think might hold the euro down...

    1. France election mess will slow down economic reform

    2. Sluggish German economy.. thats what the key eco data shows... Sinn from the IFO pressuring ECB to lower rates. I think companies like BMW and Benz will are pushing the gov. for a lower Euro to help their business.

    3. Possible rate cut.. wheras in the US things seem to be stronger and key US fed officials signaling that they wont hold rates much lower.. Basically u have the EZ bitching for a rate cut.. yet u have the US signaling their rates are bottoming out.

    4. Although UK not linked to EURO... their gov has stated that they are favoring a weaker cable because their exporting is lagging.. I believe this is even more so the case in Germany.


    1. Al Qaeda terrorist attack.. will hurt dollar. Flight to gold and selling off dollar.

    ---- Overall I think if u just look at the fundemental picture right now the EURO should be heading lower in the short run..

    However, the longer term horizon is very tricky because the US has many serious problems.. which are mainly debt and job related. Terrorist attacks at home and abroad can really screw things up but something like that would be short lived unless it effects the US banking system.

  5. Mike, aren't the things that are the cause of the USD's weakening for the last two years still in place?

  6. rezo_s


    Hi everyone.

    Well, I was short EURUSd over the weekend, but the price just bounced back closing me for zero. I was hoping to see that trend line on daily chart being broken, but it didnt happen (there is still achance, but its getting smaller - it was nessesary to happen in the begining of the week). In fact, today there was a sharp selling moment - maybe stops were triggered(?) below the 1.2060/70 but the price bounced back pretty strongly, which means there were enough buyers down there and no sellers to accelerate and sustain the movement south.
    This is partially the answer to the question. Big guys are not selling. period.
    In terms of market understanding I think we should see it as a sign that we may no more move down and may form a bottom here. If we look at the daily chart, we see that there is a bullish daily candle forming today with close near day highs, and it is exactly after the test of the line and key area of 1.2050 - 1.2100.
    All my positions are closed at the moment and I am no more considering reselling this pair (at least today).
    I will be watching closely for the rest of the week (this doesnt mean I will not trade - I will see) and if we really see euro appriciating more than just today and breaking above 1.24 and 1.25, then I say we can (at least that is the way I will be doing it in this scenario) start buying Euro with initial target at year highs of 1.29+ and next target open and above 1.30.
    For now I wait.
    BTW, 1.24 - 1.25s not nessesary to be broken - depending on how it goes, I may consider longs even as soon as above 1.23. Once again, will see. I am in no hurry. Let it show the direction and sentiment first.


  7. T-REX


    You just need to play the intraday swings like i did this morning.

    See below:
  8. rezo_s


    Hey, thats the market - one trades one way and other - different. If we all traded the same there would be no market ;)

    Nice swings BTW !

    Good Luck!
  9. Am looking for fundamental information sources that those of you who trade EUR/USD in particular and forex in general use.

    I am more concerned with longer term trades, and am not interested in technical indicators.

    I'm currently long the EUR/USD and forsee a declining US market in the next year (sorry if my opinion has upset some of you).

  10. Digs


    #10     Mar 29, 2004