I hate to say this but despite people thinking that there might be a domino effect of countries defaulting on their bonds in Europe, I believe the euro is poised to possibly go higher. I developed a method which can do well with large waves that may give a buy signal in the next couple of days. And from a technical analysis point of view, the euro has formed a quadruple bottom. It's true in a downtrend, there might be large retracements which give you the impression the tide has changed only to go back down again. So, if the quadruple bottom doesn't hold, then there might be a serious downside breakout. It would be odd though if there was a downside breakout on the euro because by the time that happens, maybe the S&P 500 will have done a double top by then. (For those who never read on technical analysis, that would imply the stock market might tank for a while.) EDIT: enjoy my mad paint skills hehe
Historically EUR/USD has a positive growth. Governments will help the countries that have problems and the EUR will grow again. I don't think it can fall more down than 1.30
I got it as going down, at least till the end of the week. It currently seems to be forming a cozy little contracting triangle. -Marko
Well, not completely. I was thinking more along the lines of what could happen in the next several weeks. It's surprising to see though the S&P 500 has already recovered from the last dive and the EUR/JPY had a huge up move today.
The method I developed to participate in a change in direction has finally signaled a change in direction on the daily chart. Of course, watch the EUR/USD go down sharply right after I post this (just kidding). In any case, I'm going to see if I can get in at some point next week and hold on for a while.
lol, you must have experience looking at technical indicators. You're correct, it's a combination of both. Actually, the way I arrived at the particular method I'm looking at now is I noticed when I used a really fast signal like slow stochastics, I could have too many false signals. However, a moving average crossover system in its strictest sense is rather slow sometimes. I ended up developing a method that uses moving averages as a guide, but I end up using price levels after that to determine the entry point. I thought of some ways lately to do trend following on longer term charts like a daily chart but also another method that would have shorter term signals but would actually have contrarian entry points to do trend following. Sounds odd but maybe in a couple of months I'll now whether it really has potential or not.