Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The pound rose against the dollar for a fifth month amid signs the U.K. economy may be emerging from the worst recession since World War II. The U.K. currency also gained in the week after market researcher GfK NOP said yesterday British consumer confidence held at a 15-month high. The MSCI World Index reached its highest level since October while the FTSE 100 Index recorded its biggest monthly gain since April 2003. âThereâs been some evidence of reasonably good news on the domestic front,â said Jeremy Stretch, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. âFrom the international perspective youâve got the risk-appetite equity story, which is obviously still being played out to a favorable backdrop for sterling.â The pound climbed 1.4 percent to $1.6732 as of 5:30 p.m. in London yesterday, contributing to a 1.6 percent return in the month. Its July advance gave it the longest run of monthly gains since February 2004. The British currency was little changed at 85.31 pence per euro, leaving it down 0.1 percent in the month. Sterling climbed 0.3 percent to 158.12 yen yesterday, paring a 0.3 percent monthly loss. Improving economic data have helped the pound advance 14 percent against the dollar this year and 12 percent against the euro. Retail sales rose 1.2 percent in June, the Office for National Statistics said July 23, four times as much as economists forecast. Mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said two days ago the average cost of a home rose 1.3 percent in July. Not Over Sterling slid 26 percent against the dollar last year and 23 percent against the common European currency âLonger term, we are in part of an uptrend for the pound,â said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. âI donât think this is over.â Government bonds advanced yesterday as Fitch Ratings affirmed the U.K.âs long-term rating at AAA and a U.S. government report showed gross domestic product shrank 1 percent in the second quarter. âThe U.K.âs AAA ratings remain supported by its high- valued added and diversified economy,â Fitch said in a statement. The gains pushed the yield on the 10-year gilt down 15 basis points to 3.80 percent, the biggest decline since May 13. The yield fell 16 basis points in the week. The two-year gilt yield declined 10 basis points to 1.24 percent for a 9 basis- point drop in the week. Asset Purchases Gilts fell 1.8 percent this month, compared with a 0.3 percent decline for U.S. Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Standard & Poorâs lowered the outlook on the U.K.âs AAA credit rating to ânegativeâ from âstableâ on May 21, citing the countryâs rising debt burden. Britain plans to sell a record 220 billion pounds of debt in the fiscal year ending March 2010 to help revive the economy. Sterling may extend its gains should the Bank of England decide when it meets Aug. 6 to reduce the scale of its asset- purchase program, which it set up to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate the economy. The central bank said two days ago it completed buying 125 billion pounds of securities this week and the Monetary Policy Committee will âreview whether the scale of the asset-purchase program should be changed at its August meeting, alongside its latest inflation projections.â Pause Speculation Policy maker Andrew Sentance said July 23 the Bank of England may pause the program and shift to a âwatchingâ stance next month if officials determine they have done enough to nurture an economic recovery. âThe market has certainly been speculating they may pause,â said Ian Stannard, a London-based currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. âIf we do see a pause the initial knee-jerk reaction may be for sterling to move higher.â Investors should sell 10-year British gilts and buy German bunds on speculation that the Bank of England will start to slow down its bond-purchase program, according to Royal Bank of Canada. âWeâll have massive amount of issuance coming down the pipeline which will no longer have the effective subsidization of the quantitative-easing process,â said Richard McGuire, the bankâs head of European fixed-income strategy.
i wonder if some on to help ,, do you use any service for analysis or forecast .. like i see actioneconomics charge 350 a month also dailyfx charge the same yesterday for eur/usd their a debate between all of them bullish or bearish any recommendation thx
There's plenty of free analysis out there, no need to pay anyone for it. Anyway I thought dailyfx are free?
CAbletrader...where did you get these from? what website?...this is awesome!!...please let me know...thanks...
we are gonna see hugh moves this week in Forex..anyone set up to short the GBP/USD and EUR/USD?...should be big moves down...giving up some lf last weeks gains...agree?