A drop below 1.5360 would set sights on our first bearish move at 1.5230. Source: http://www.theforexnews.com/index.php?action=detail&id=1210218120 I think what ever signal is broken, it will be a large jump. The bigger the rise, the bigger the fall.
Commitment of traders looks like small speculators are overly optimistic about the US dollar now. I think that hedge funds are going short the dollar to test the 1.60 area to see how strong the G7 rhetoric really is in support of the dollar.
Germany reported the strongest quarterly growth in 12 years, everyone talks US recession but the Euro just flatlines. A mosaic piece to keep in mind.