EUR/USD Analysis

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TraderGreg, Mar 26, 2009.

  1. Balljet

    Balljet

    bouncing off support, fib retr. long at 33.12
     
    #11     Apr 13, 2009
  2. Ok couldn't sleep and planning to trade in the morning so here I am.

    Straight to it...

    Monthly: not surprising that we closed in an inside bar. As I have in the past, I take nothing from this chart besides the resistance at 1.35

    Weekly: possible little 3br heading toward confirming my dragon? I think it's possible, but I'm looking closely at what my daily is saying too. Also: notice the different trendline I had before - I confirmed the pattern too early! I try not to base my analyses much on TLs because of that.

    Daily: I try to not take Mondays too seriously, but there was a nice little inside bar break there. If a yesterday's high is taken, I might become more bullish. Otherwise, it seems like there were five waves down before an ABC hitting up to the trendline, signaling a possible strong bearish continuation. Swing sequence looks like an uptrend though. Haha I'm not going to care about the daily until I see some dedication to whatever it's doing.

    4hr/3hr/2hr: These are the kinds of situations I don't like much. The break above the supports around 1.335-1.34 on a strong impulse. If I felt like being foolish I'd say that we are looking for a bounce off prior support and catch the impulse continuation. If I felt like being just as foolish I'd make an argument for being bearish.

    It's funny because a few weeks ago I would have said this was one of the keys to my turnaround in trading, but now I would swear that none of it means anything. I feel like I just kind of "respond" to the market based on things I'm very familiar with, rather than trying to figure it out.

    Fascinating thing trading is. I still like this though because I get a nice feel and look at PA, and I know what to look for tomorrow.

    Charts: left to right = monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hr - not sure how size will turn out
     
    #12     May 5, 2009
  3. I'd like to make a another post soon, but did that continuing rally come out of nowhere or what? ;)

    Based on my earlier posts, seems like I just needed to refine my timing a bit (which I have been working on lately).
     
    #13     Jun 4, 2009
  4. It's been a full month since my last analysis and two weeks since my last trading day, so I figure this is a good time to pick this thread back up.

    I would like to make this strictly longer term however to save me time, so now I'll only be doing daily and higher tfs.

    First things first: From looking at my last post, I was pretty much dead on with what I was saying. The weekly 3br did fire and fuel the uptrend like I was saying, and the daily break I was referring to started it (after pulling back for a few days after the Monday IB break - spot on!). Not to be cocky though, I was quite thrown off with the weekly close on May 15 (lost some money there).

    Now to analysis:

    Monthly: so the inside bar broke upwards. Nothing significant here PA-wise other that what I've talked about. However, the simple fact that it took four whole months to go from 1.25 to 1.40 is like watching Warren Buffet a marathon compared to the conditions we have been seeing. It's very possible that normal conditions are very slowly returning the market.

    Weekly: If you don't see the bull flag chances are you've never seen a chart before. This is something to be watching closely, however (or however closely you can watch a weekly chart). AB=CD pattern is there and so are the fib retracements. We are also at prior resistance from that ludicrous parabola a few months back. No call to be made without PA confirmation, however.

    2-Day: The last bar closes Monday, so don't take that too seriously. This is a call I'd love to make, but with the unemployment nonsense I'd rather be right and skeptical than wrong and ignorant.

    Daily: I spent some time studying Elliott Wave this month, and there is a clear five waves there after the flag. A bearish signal fired too. However, since I'm new to Elliott wave I'd rather watch then care.

    Intraday: everything seems to support what I was talking about from the daily to weekly.

    One thing I won't do is make a call on the market. I've learned to be more open-minded and reactive to the market rather than closed and predictive - I spent some time learning that one.

    As a result, I'm using this thread as more of a learning tool than a "directional analysis" thread that I originally wanted it to be. I hope you learn something too.

    Chart: left to right = monthly, weekly, 2 day, daily
     
    #14     Jun 5, 2009
  5. Forgot attachment.
     
    #15     Jun 5, 2009
  6. Reealjrd

    Reealjrd

    A pullback below 1.4000 would likely hit some support at 1.3960 and if it continues to fall could see further resistance at 1.3925. Little stands in the way of further declines until the 1.3850 level.
     
    #16     Jun 11, 2009
  7. Nancy

    Nancy

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    #17     Jun 11, 2009
  8. TayOO

    TayOO

    SPAM??

    No thanks.. :D
     
    #18     Jun 11, 2009
  9. Deleted spam and user.

    -Ivan
     
    #19     Jun 11, 2009
  10. Thank you, Ivan.

    Unfortunately, this will likely be my last post in this thread for a while. After taking some time off for finals and a two week trip, my trading has really suffered. In an effort to simplify things and shift my focus, I'm going to cut everything above the 4 hour chart in my trading. I'm an intraday trader anyway, so it all works out.

    Review from last post: unless something drastically changes in the next 24 hours, it seems the weekly signal will not fire (at least this week). As for the daily we saw a further collapse on Monday but with a steady rise since. My personal guess is that this is a steady rise as part of an overall 1-2-3 reversal. However, the 3 hour chart already bounced off of the daily trendline and declined from it, but has since gone on to make new highs.

    I'm also a bit confused by the strength we've been seeing in the pullback compared to the initial decline -- the initial decline only went until Monday, and that might just have been leftover supply from the unemployment news. Since, the market has been decisively bullish.

    If I were trading these timeframes, I think I would just wait for a clear signal to show something playing out. There is a nice inside bar on the 2-day that would be an indication, perhaps we made see a new bounce off of the daily trendline that would be indicative of a decline, maybe a break above the 1.4150-1.42 area and then a bounce off of it, something of that nature.

    I hate trying to interpret news with longer term technicals.

    Chart: left to right = weekly, 2 day, daily.

    Good luck!
     
    #20     Jun 11, 2009